NCEP GEFS Subseasonal Severe Weather Forecast Guidance

February 2026

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

 


SCP: Supercell Composite Parameter, derived using GEFS forecasts of 6-hourly
lower-level convective available potential energy, storm-relative helicity, and
bulk wind difference between 500 hPa and 10 m.
GEFS: 35-day forecasts with 31 ensemble members
>>> Days 8-10 forecasts
>>> Weeks 2 and 3 forecasts

Reference: Carbin, G. W., M. K. Tippett, S. P. Lillo, and H. E. Brooks, 2016:
Visualizing long-range severe thunderstorm environment guidance from CFSv2.
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, 1021–1031,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00136.1.


2026
| January | February | March | April | May | June | July |
| August | September | October | November | December |


Contact: hui.wang@noaa.gov