WEEKLY WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT July 28, 2004  DISCUSSION: 
1.  Poor performance of the wet season rains over the past several years has resulted in a long term, multi-year drought across the Sool Plateau and the nearby Togdheer Region in northern Somalia. The 2004 season, however, saw an overall good performance of the rains. Despite these rains, large long term moisture deficits and drought remain.  The next chance for significant rainfall will come in October. 
2. The long rains this year were much below normal across eastern Kenya, the Somali region of Ethiopia and across the Galguduud and Mudug regions of  Somalia.  The season started late and ended early, as little rain fell during March or May. Totals were less than half of normal for the season, with deficits of 100 to 150 mm. Some areas in the higher elevations have deficits of 250+ mm. This may result in degradation of pastures and reduction in water availability to people and livestock as the dry season progresses. The next chance for significant rain will be with the onset of the short rains in October. 
3. The 2004 Belg season (February-May) was drier than normal across the South Tigray zone as well as North Wello and South Wello zones in the Ahmara region. Rainfall was about half of normal for the season.  The season also started late and ended early, with most of the season's rainfall occurring during the month of April. The typical length of the Belg rains is about 10 weeks. The 2004 Belg season lasted only 4 to 5 weeks.  The shorter and drier than normal season undermined agricultural activities in the area and resulted in crop yield reductions and even crop failures.
4. Multi-year drought has resulted in long term moisture deficits across southeastern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania. Poor performance of the March-May rains has exacerbated long term drought conditions across the area. The long term drought will reduce water supplies and reservoir levels, degrade pastures and may result in reduced sub-soil moisture availability for the upcoming second cropping season. 
5. Rainfall during the past 30 to 90 days has been erratic and lighter than normal across southeastern Sudan, portions of southwestern Ethiopia and adjacent areas in Kenya and Uganda. This has resulted in rainfall deficits of 50 to 80 mm and may have resulted in crop stress. Showers are expected during the period, which should help to ease dryness. 
6. Rainfall during the 2003-04 rainy season was about 70 percent of normal across west-central portions of Tanzania. Satellite imagery show indications of pasture degradation in the agro-pastoral areas. This region should be monitored through the dry season for possible poor pasture conditions and water shortages. 
7. Seasonal rains have been slow to start across northern and western portions of Senegal's Groundnut Basin. Main season rains typically begin in early to mid July, and have yet to set in. This may result in planting delays and a possible shortened growing season. Rain may begin during the period. 
8. A strong winter storm produced torrential rains along coastal sections of Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa on July 27th. Up to 170 mm of rain was reported during the 24 hour period. Rainfall amounts this high may have caused flooding and landslides. Fortunately, drier conditions are expected during the period. 
AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt