WEEKLY WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT July 7, 2004  DISCUSSION: 
1.  Poor performance of the wet season rains over the past several years has resulted in a long term, multi-year
drought across the Sool Plateau and the nearby Togdheer Region in northern Somalia. The 2004 season, however,
saw an overall good performance of the rains. Despite these rains, large long term moisture deficits and drought
remain.  The next chance for significant rainfall will come with in October. 
2. The long rains this year were much below normal across eastern Kenya, the Somali region of Ethiopia and across
the Galguduud and Mudug regions of  Somalia.  The season started late and ended early, as little rain fell during
March or May. Totals were less than half of normal for the season, with deficits of 100 to 150 mm. Some areas in the
higher elevations have deficits of 250+ mm. This may result in degradation of pastures and reduction in water
availability to people and livestock as the dry season progresses. The next chance for significant rain will be with the
onset of the short rains in October. 
3. The 2004 Belg season (February-May) was drier than normal across the South Tigray zone as well as North Wello
and South Wello zones in the Ahmara region.  The season started late and ended early, with most of the season's
rainfall occurring during the month of April. The shorter and drier than normal season undermined agricultural
activities in the area and resulted in crop yield reductions and even crop failures. The dryness may also hamper land
preparation efforts for Meher crops. Rainfall is expected to increase during the period, favoring Meher crops. 
4. May and June have been drier than normal across Amhara and Tigray east of Lake Tana. This may hamper some
land preparation efforts for the Meher crop and may have resulted in some localized moisture stress to long cycle
crops. However, the dryness may have also favored planting efforts in some areas where the soil is more workable.
Rainfall is expected to increase during the period, which is typical for early July. This should help to boost moisture
availability and Meher/long cycle crop prospects. 
5. Multi-seasonal drought has resulted in long term moisture deficits across southeastern Kenya and northeastern
Tanzania. Poor performance of the March-May rains has exacerbated long term drought conditions across the area.
The long term drought will reduce water supplies and reservoir levels, degrade pastures and may result in reduced
sub-soil moisture availability for second season crops. 
6. Rainfall has been spotty and lighter than normal during June and the first few days of July across northern
portions of Ivory Coast and adjacent parts of Guinea. 6 week rainfall totals are only 30 to 60 percent of normal, with
deficits of around 50 mm reported in the area. However, rainfall is expected to increase during the period. This will
ease dryness and reduce deficits, but may result in isolated flooding problems. Seasonal rains are expected across
most of western Africa during the period, and some of these rains will be heavy. As a result, the potential for isolated
flooding problems exists across the Gulf of Guinea region and the southern Sahel. 

AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt