Africa Weather Hazards Assessment Text Explanation
July 1 - 7, 2004

1) Long term drought continues in the Sanaag and Sool Provinces of northern Somalia due to many seasons of little to no
rainfall in the area.  The 2004 season so far has been much wetter than normal, though the seasonal moisture was not
sufficient to substantially mitigate the long term drought.  No precipitation is expected during the period.

2) Moderate to severe dryness is occurring in parts of southern and central Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, eastern and
southern Kenya, and northeastern Tanzania.  Though the severity of dryness varies throughout the region, the entire area
will not likely see improved conditions for the next few months as the dry season continues.  In central Somalia, seasonal
dryness has been observed during the past four monsoonal periods, and substantial rainfall deficits exist.  Further to the
west in southern Ethiopia and eastern Kenya, dryness has only been evident during the past two seasons, though further to
the south into northeastern Tanzania, drought has affected the area for two years.  The final factor affecting the entire
region were the rains which virtually cut off in early May, a month sooner than normal.

3) Belg rains in north central Ethiopia ran from 20-50 percent of normal for the 2004 March-April-May season.  This has led
to locally severe dryness in the area, though light showers have been noted during the past few weeks.  Crop losses are
likely due to the poor performing rainfall during the March - May season.

4) Rainfall has graciously increased during the past two weeks in Meher agricultural areas of northwestern Ethiopia after
slow to start and thereafter lighter than normal precipitation during late May and early June.  Dryness concerns are slowly
washing away as rains continue to fall and additional precipitation is likely during the next week.

5) Associated with region #2, southern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania remains in a 2-year-long drought due to poor
performing rainfall the past 3 seasons.  Though the season is generally finished in the region, moisture deficits continue
to accumulate.  Little relief is expected until October/November though coastal showers may continue.

6) Continued rains were observed during the past seven days along much of coastal Kenya, northeastern coastal Tanzania, and
southern coastal Somalia, as onshore flow brings moisture into the region.  Locally heavy rains up to 125 mm were noted in
northern coastal Kenya, though weekly totals around 25 mm were much more common.  Meteorological forecast models continue
to indicate a chance for additional rainfall in the area during the next week.  These rains have helped to reduce seasonal
moisture deficits which occurred due to the very poor March - May period, though dryness remains.

7) Localized flooding may occur during the next week due to saturated soil conditions and the possibility for additional
heavy rainfall.  Any flooding will be associated with the heavier thunderstorm clusters as they pass from east to west over
the area.  Weekly precipitation totals may exceed 150 mm locally.


Timothy Love