Africa Weather Hazards Assessment Text Explanation
June 10 - 16, 2004


1) Long term drought continues in the Sanaag and Sool Provinces of northern Somalia due to many seasons of little to no rainfall in the area.  During the
previous week up to 25 mm of rainfall was recorded locally in the northern Sanaag Province, though no accumulations were seen elsewhere.  The area may
again receive light showers during the next week, though any accumulations will likely be insignificant.

2) May rainfall totals in much of central Somalia ran from 0-50 percent of normal, further intensifying dryness in the area and degrading pasture
conditions.  Coupled with the recent dryness is the fact that rains have been meager at best during the previous two seasons and substantial yearly
deficits have accumulated.  No relief is expected during the next months as the dry season has set in.

3) Short term dryness is evident in parts of the northern Highlands of Ethiopia.  The area outlined represents the extent of problems that have affected
the Belg season, while elsewhere dry conditions may be hindering long season Meher crops.  March rainfall was spotty in the area, though overall
precipitation was near to above normal in the central Highlands south of Lake Tana.  April brought impressive rains to much of the area, though May saw a
complete lack of rain to much of the area with accumulations ranging from 0-30 percent of normal.  Dryness was evident again during the last week
throughout most of the hazard region, though moderate rains continued just west of the region near the Sudan border.  Precipitation should be healthier
during the forecast period but will be confined to areas west of Lake Tana.

4) Southern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania remains in a 2-year long drought due to poor performing rainfall the past 3 seasons. Though the season is
generally finished in the region, moisture deficits continue to accumulate as rain refuses to fall.  Little relief is expected until October/November,
though some light showers are possible on the Tanzanian side of the hazard region during the next few days.

5) The rainy season has likely ended throughout most of southeastern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and northeastern Tanzania, and substantial precipitation
deficits have accumulated.  Based on pasture condition modeling, however, pasture conditions are generally favorable in much of eastern Kenya.  This is not
the case in much of southern Ethiopia and parts of northern Kenya, as forage conditions are not favorable.  Throughout the entire region, March to May
precipitation has run from 20-80 percent of normal with local deficits reaching 300 mm for the period.  Though very light showers were seen in parts of
southern Kenya during the past week, rains are not likely to make a significant impact during the next few months.

6) Coastal areas of Kenya north of Mombassa and extreme southern coastal Somalia received moderate rainfall during the past week, with 7-day accumulations
ranging from 10 to locally 50+ mm.  This is certainly beneficial for water resource issues throughout the region, though the fact that this is the first
significant precipitation event in almost two months is troubling.  90-Day precipitation deficits have reached 300 mm locally and any crops planted in the
region have likely been negatively affected.  Hydrological problems may also be seen in the near future if June rains do not fall.  Meteorological forecast
models indicate a chance for locally moderate to heavy rainfall during June 11-13 along the Kenya coast.


Timothy Love