Africa Weather Hazards Assessment Text Explanation
June 3 - 9, 2004


1) Long term drought continues in the Sanaag and Sool Provinces of northern Somalia due to many seasons of little to no rainfall in the area.  2004
precipitation to date is quite impressive, however, with most areas receiving greater than normal totals for the season.  Though light precipitation
continues in the region, long term drought will remain as hydrological and pastoral conditions are problematic.

2) May rainfall totals in much of central Somalia ran from 0-50 percent of normal, further intensifying dryness in the area and degrading pasture
conditions.  Coupled with the recent dryness is the fact that rains have been meager at best during the previous two seasons and substantial yearly
deficits have accumulated.  No relief is expected during the next months as the dry season has set in.

3) Short term dryness is evident in parts of the northern Highlands in Ethiopia.  The area outlined represents the extent of problems that have affected
the Belg season, while elsewhere dry conditions may be hindering long season Meher crops.  March rainfall was spotty in the area, though overall
precipitation was near to above normal in the central Highlands south of Lake Tana.  April brought impressive rains to much of the area, though May saw a
complete lack of rain to much of the area with accumulations ranging from 0-30 percent of normal.  Dryness is again expected during the next week and
agriculture will continue to feel the affects of the extended dry spell.

4) Southern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania remains in a 2-year long drought due to poor performing rainfall the past 3 seasons. Though the season is
generally finished in the region, moisture deficits continue to accumulate as rain refuses to fall.  Little relief is expected until October/November.

5) The rainy season has likely ended throughout most of southeastern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and northeastern Tanzania, though substantial precipitation
deficits have accumulated.  Based on pasture condition modeling, however, pasture conditions are generally favorable in much of eastern Kenya.  This is not
the case in much of southern Ethiopia though, as forage conditions are not likely at healthy levels.  Throughout the entire region, March to May
precipitation has run from 20-80 percent of normal with local deficits reaching 300 mm for the period.  This does not bode well for the next few months as
relief is not likely.

6) Since mid to late April, little to no rainfall has been observed along much of coastal southern Somalia, Kenya, and northeastern Tanzania, as 90-day
precipitation deficits have reached 300 mm locally.  Any crops planted in the region have likely been affected and hydrological problems may be seen in the
near future if June rains do not fall.  There is a chance for local areas to receive some substantial precipitation during the next week if the weather
system off the coast moves inland; otherwise the area will remain dry.


Timothy Love