Africa Weather Hazards Assessment Text Explanation
April 15-21, 2004

1) While somewhat lighter than during the first week of April, healthy rainfall was noted during the past few days in
Togdheer, Sanaag, and western Sool provinces of northern Somalia.  Month to date rainfall accumulations have exceeded 70
mm in a few locations which have been experiencing long term hydrological and agricultural drought.  Another favorable
period of precipitation is expected during the upcoming week as pasture conditions begin to rebound in the area.

2) Due to month to date accumulations of rainfall exceeding 150 mm in southern Ethiopia and
northern Kenya, hydrological dryness arising from poor 2003 rains has been greatly mitigated. Areas of dryness do remain,
but the overall situation is much more favorable that was seen just a few weeks ago.  Especially in southern Ethiopia,
forage conditions analyses are showing positive trends in nearly all locations.

3) Locally very heavy rains have fallen in parts of southern and western Kenya during the past weeks, and flooding has
been the result.  Up to and exceeding 225 mm of rainfall has been estimated over the past two weeks, with locally greater
than 150 mm falling during the last few days and up to 100 mm on April 10th.  Generally lighter rainfall is expected
during the forecast week, which should be helpful for the more severely affected areas.

4) The rainfall causing flooding problems as depicted in area #3 stretched to the southeast as well and brought continued
relief to drought affected regions of southern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania.  This marks the third week in a row where
significant moisture extended into the region.  While 2003 precipitation deficits in the hundreds of millimeters will be
difficult to overcome, it is certainly possible if not likely, if this weather pattern continues.

5) Locally very heavy rainfall was observed for the second straight week along much of coastal Tanzania and northeastern
Mozambique, with 7-day accumulations exceeding 150 mm in some areas.  Combined with the 200 mm + observed during the first
week of April excessive runoff may cause some problems in the region.

6) With the widespread agricultural problems due to erratic and late to start 2003-04 seasonal rainfall somewhat in the
past, continued erratic but regionally beneficial rains were again seen during the past week.  Though any crops planted on
schedule in much of southeastern Zimbabwe and southern Mozambique may have failed due to poor early rainfall, later
plantings are reaping the benefits of increased moisture since mid-February.  Rains should be generally light during the
week to come.

7) Unusually heavy rains have been seen throughout much of central and eastern Angola during
the past two weeks, leading to sustained local flooding along the headwaters of the Zambezi and near the Caprivi Strip
area of Namibia.  Although not as urgent, the Huambo area of central Angola has been highlighted to address problems that
may complicate early-season flooding. Rains continue to move northward out of the area and next week may bring more sun
than moisture to the region.

8) While rains abated during the past week along coastal areas of Gabon, heavy rains fell further to the north along areas
of southern Nigeria and western Cameroon.  Weekly rainfall
accumulations exceeded 200 mm locally, and additional precipitation is expected throughout the area during the next week.

9) Recently higher than normal temperatures combine with lack of moisture to maintain
agricultural problems in parts of Morocco.  While seasonal rainfall totals are near normal, the fact that much of the rain
fell before January has led to dryness during the past few months. Light showers are possible during the forecast week.

10) Over 100 mm of rainfall inundated much of Djibouti on April 12-13, as widespread flooding was seen.  This 2-day
rainfall accumulation approaches the region's normal yearly total.  Rainfall should generally be lighter from Thursday
onward.

Timothy Love