Africa Weather Hazards Assessment Text Explanation
April 8-14, 2004

1) Locally, up to 50 mm rainfall was observed during the last week throughout the Togdheer,
Sanaag, and western Sool Provinces of northern Somalia.  This has likely signaled a start to 
their rainy season, as similar accumulations may be expected during the next week.  A 5+ 
season drought in the region will be difficult to overcome, though rainfall is promising 
thusfar this season.

2) Widespread Belg rainfall was seen throughout much of Ethiopia during last week, and thus 
moisture has increased in both hazard areas.  While generally lighter rains fell in parts of 
southeastern Ethiopia and western Somalia, locally heavy rains were observed in south central 
Ethiopia.  The hydrological problems, stemming from poor performing seasonal rains in 2003, 
can be overcome with normal to above normal rainfall in 2004.  It should be noted that pasture 
conditions are generally favorable, especially in southern Ethiopia / northern Kenya.

3) The active weather pattern across Africa played a role in bringing increased rainfall to 
drought affected regions of southern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania during last week.  
Locally, up to 100 mm was observed in the hazard area, as favorable rains continued from the 
previous period.  Substantial 2004 rainfall is needed to overcome 2002-03 deficits where rains 
ran from 10-60 percent of normal.  Agricultural and hydrological dryness problems seen in the 
area would be somewhat moderated if near normal (up to 300 mm) rains fall in April.

4) Abnormally heavy rains associated with a strong onshore moisture flow have been noted 
throughout much of northern coastal Mozambique and coastal Tanzania during the past two weeks.
Meteorological forecasts indicate a continuing trend during the next week, with locally up to 100
mm rainfall possible.  A likely shift in the overall atmospheric pattern will occur during
mid-late April and should play a role to decrease precipitation throughout the region.

5) With the season nearing an end in southern Mozambique, widespread agricultural problems 
will be seen due to late starting and erratic seasonal precipitation.  While heavy rainfall 
during the final week of March has moderated dryness in parts of central Mozambique and 
eastern Zimbabwe, dryness returned last week and forecasts are not optimistic for additional 
rainfall this period.

6) Along with the northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the area of 
increased convection in southern Africa has shifted northward and is located from central 
Angola through southern DRC and southern Tanzania.  While heavy rainfall during the previous 
week was not observed in southern Zambia near the Kariba Reservoir, runoff from upstream 
precipitation has maintained areas of flooding northwestward along the Upper Zambezi and 
northward along the Kafue River.  Widespread flooding likely continues in the Caprivi Strip 
region of northeastern Namibia.  Next week should see rainfall continuing its movement 
northward and generally out of Zambia.

7) Greater than 150 mm of rain fell in much of western Gabon and the surrounding region 
during the previous week, as soils remain saturated and abundant runoff is likely.  
Continued local flooding will be possible in locations experiencing heavy thunderstorms 
during the forecast period. 

8) Though locally heavy rains were seen in northwestern Morocco two weeks ago, little 
precipitation was noted during last week and rainfall forecasts are not optimistic for the 
forecast week.  Generally unfavorable atmospheric conditions should limit rainfall 
accumulations in the near future, as seasonally erratic moisture continues to harm agriculture.

Timothy Love