WEEKLY WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT MARCH 31, 2004 DISCUSSION: 1. The poor performance of seasonal rains in recent years has resulted in an extreme multi-year drought across the Sool Plateau and nearby Togdheer region of northern Somalia. The drought has resulted in severe pasture degradation and the depletion of water supplies. The potential exists for beneficial rainfall during the period, with rainfall amounts of 10 to 40 mm possible. The main wet season in northern Somalia is usually in April and May. 2. The aggregate deficits of the past two seasons have resulted in rainfall totals that were only 40 to 65 percent of the annual normal for the 2003 calendar year across far southern parts of the Somali and Oromiya regions of Ethiopia. These dry areas extend into adjacent portions of Somalia and Kenya. In the Turkana district of northwestern Kenya, rainfall was near normal for the October-December short season, but was poorly distributed. The 2003 rainfall deficits may have resulted in pasture degradation and reduced water supplies. The potential for beneficial rains exists across the Somali and Oromiya regions of Ethiopia, and adjacent parts of Somalia and northern Kenya. These rains would benefit pastures, ease dryness and give an early boost to soil moisture as the region awaits the onset of the long rains. Rainfall amounts of 20 to 80 mm are possible during the period. 3. The cumulative effects of several seasons of poor performing rains has caused a long term drought across southeastern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania. Abundant early rains have resulted in soil moisture and vegetation improvement across the area, and have also increased water supplies for reservoirs. However, deficits still remain. Showers are expected during the period, with weekly totals of 10 to 25 mm. 4. In eastern Inhambane Province, rainfall has been light during the 2003-04 season with seasonal rainfall totals that are half of normal. Showers are possible during the period, however little improvement is expected. In and around Maputo Province, rainfall totals are around 70 percent of normal, but was poorly distributed. Most of the rain fell over short periods of time, resulting in mostly run off. The potential for substantial crop yield reductions and crop failures exists. 5. A very dry early season was followed by some welcome rains late in the season across central and southeastern Mozambique. However, rainfall has been erratic in some locations. The combination of lingering deficits and erratic rainfall may have a negative impact on agriculture. Beneficial daily showers are expected across the area during the period. 6. A very wet February and beginning of March resulted in saturated soils, high river levels and flooding problems across western Zambia, the Caprivi Strip in Namibia, northern Botswana and northwestern Zimbabwe. Rainfall has tapered off during the past few weeks, allowing the waters of the upper Zambezi and the Kafue rivers to slowly recede. However, river levels remain high and flooding is still a concern. Rainfall in and around these river basins is expected to be scattered and generally light during the period. Therefore, the regional flood risk is expected to decrease. 7. Recent unsettled weather in northwestern Africa has eased short term deficits and has benefitted winter grains. However, moisture deficits form a dry spell which started at the beginning of the calendar year persist across portions of western Morocco. These deficits may have a negative impact on winter grains in the area. Showers are possible late in the period, which may result in some improvement. 8. A disorganized area of convection in the northern Mozambique Channel is expected to produce heavy rain across northeastern Mozambique and adjacent parts of southeastern Tanzania early in the period. Rainfall amounts of 100 to 150 mm are expected. As a result, the potential for flooding exists. Furthermore, torrential downpours may cause localized damage to mature crops in the field. Heavy rains are also possible across Comoros. AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt