Africa Weather Hazards Assessment Text Explanation
February 26 - March 3, 2004

1) Long term drought continues in the Sool Plateau region of northern Somalia due to poor rainfall during the past 
5+ seasons.  No improvement is likely until at least March as hydrological and agricultural problems remain.

2) Continued light showers were seen in parts of southern Ethiopia during the last week, though long term drought
remains.  Additional precipitation is not expected during the next period.  No changes were seen during the past 
two months in parts of northeastern Ethiopia / western Somalia which are experiencing drought conditions due to 
poor rainfall the recent two seasons.  

3) After a week of light showers throughout much of eastern Tanzania, precipitation increased during the past 
seven days, as weekly accumulations exceeded 75 mm in many areas.  Dryness forecast during the last days of 
February may fit in well to recent erratic moisture patterns in the region, though hit and miss thunderstorms still may 
lead to locally heavy rains.

4) and 5) Long term drought continues in much of southern Mozambique, Swaziland, and eastern South Africa 
due to poor rainfall during the past few seasons.  In areas of central and southern Mozambique, seasonal deficits 
continue to accumulate as high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern around the area.  Including much 
of east and southeastern Zimbabwe, substantial rains have not fallen since the end of January.  Further to the south 
and west, areas in and around the Maize Triangle of South Africa, Swaziland, and Lesotho have seen an increase 
in precipitation during the past weeks, though the effects of an earlier failure remains.  Agricultural damage has 
already taken its toll in much of the area, though any late-planted crops may feel positive effects of this increased 
moisture.  Rains are forecast during the next week in these areas, though southeastern Zimbabwe and southern 
Mozambique will not likely receive similar accumulations.

6) Heavy rains have continued during the past week throughout much of western and central Zambia and neighboring 
regions, as river levels continue to rise.  Most notably, the Mid to Upper Zambezi, Okavango, and Kafue Rivers are 
exhibiting increasing flows, and forecast precipitation will likely continue this trend.  Reports downstream from near 
Victoria Falls and the Kariba Reservoir show effects of increased flows, though no flooding concerns are evident.

7) The first period of substantial precipitation since early December was seen last week throughout Morocco 
and northwestern Algeria.  After a quick start to the rainy season in the area, rainfall decreased to next to nothing f
or nearly two and a half months, as agricultural and hydrological drought emerged.  While the recent rains will 
increase moisture supply in the region, agricultural problems in many areas may be beyond restoration for this season.

Timothy Love