Africa Weather Hazards Assessment Text Explanation
February 5-11, 2004

1) Long term drought continues in the Sool Plateau region of northern Somalia due to poor rainfall during the recent
years.
No improvement likely until at least March as hydrological and agricultural problems remain.

2) Rains in northern Kenya / Southern Ethiopia near the Kenyan city of Moyale were from 40-60 percent of normal 
during March-June 2003 and 10-60 percent of normal from October-December 2003.  In southeastern Ethiopia 
and west central Somalia, March-June 2003 rains were from 40-80 percent of normal and October-December rains 
ran from 10-60 percent of normal.  Thus, long term hydrological drought exists in the areas.

3) October to December 2003 precipitation deficits ranging from 100-300 mm (5-60% of normal) in much of 
eastern Tanzania and southeastern Kenya have lead to moderate dryness throughout the region.  Near normal 
rains in much of central Tanzania have helped to decrease the area affected, though severe drought still remains in 
area #4.

4) Affected by a lack of October-December rains as described in #3, much of east central and northeastern Tanzania, 
as well as parts of southern Kenya, is experiencing drought conditions.  Complicating matters are 2003 March-June 
rainfall deficits of 100-400 mm resulting in near failure of long seasonal rainfall locally.  January 2004 saw
dramatically 
increased precipitation in the affected region, and monthly positive anomalies of 50-200 mm (100-500% of normal) 
have reduced moisture deficits, though drought remains.  Showers are possible in the region during the next week.

5) Virtually all of Mozambique and Zimbabwe north of the Limpopo River Basin experienced moderate to heavy rains 
during the past week, with widespread 7-day totals greater than 50 mm and large regions receiving over 100 mm.  
This has undoubtedly helped to reduce seasonal dryness in the area, especially in areas along the Zambezi River and 
in Mozambique between the Pungoe and Save Rivers.  While lesser seasonal rainfall deficits exist in the lighter shaded 
region depicted, the eastern, darker region maintains larger November-January anomalies (30-80% of normal for the 
period).  Unless activity from Cyclone Elita produces coastal rains in Mozambique, little precipitation is expected 
during the next week.

6) Regional drought has continued in parts of eastern South Africa during January given erratic and lighter than normal 
rainfall during the month building upon negative rainfall departures since November.  Much of the area, including 
Lesotho, Swaziland, and southeastern Botswana has seen rains of around 1/4 to 3/4 of normal for the season, thusfar, 
and latest meteorological forecasts are not entirely optimistic regarding the next week.

7) While seasonal mitigating factors continue to play a role in its evolution, long term drought is evident in parts of 
eastern South Africa, Swaziland, and southern Mozambique.  Heavy rains near Maputo toward the end of January 
have dramatically decreased hydrological deficits in the area, though other areas remain quite dry.  As in area #6, 
showers and thunderstorms are expected near the southern Maize Triangle during the next week.

8) Cyclone 09S (Elita) has continued to move erratically within the Mozambique Channel and over Madagascar 
during the past week.  This has helped to greatly enhance rainfall in northern Mozambique and especially northern 
and western Madagascar, where flooding remains a concern, especially when coincident with heavier daily storms.  
The latest forecast has the system generally moving to the southeast and out to sea.  The possibility remains, however, 
for another directional shift towards the west and thus further problems associated with torrential rains.

9) Little precipitation is forecast throughout areas of northern Morocco and Algeria which continue to experience 
short term dryness due to lighter than normal rains during December-January.  The most severe dryness exists in 
Morocco, stretching from Gibralter to Casablanca, though spotty areas of concern remain in northern Algeria.

10) Heavy rains that fell over the Caprivi Strip region in eastern Namibia in December / early January have led to 
swollen river levels and some local flooding problems.  Current conditions are showing a drying trend throughout the 
region, though and forecasts indicate generally light showers possible during the next week.  This should lead to 
abatement of flooding and the lowering of river levels away from flood stage.

Timothy Love