AFRICA WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT TEXT EXPLANATION

DECEMBER 4, 2003  DISCUSSION: 

1. The near to complete failure of seasonal precipitation in the Sool Plateau region of northern Somalia for the past four
years has led to severe drought conditions throughout the area.  While the area received very light rains during the last 
week and may again see up to 5-10 mm locally during the current period, drought will continue.

2. Short term dryness continues in parts of eastern Ethiopia into central Somalia, as well as in parts of extreme southern
Ethiopia into eastern Uganda and northern Kenya.  In eastern Etiopia / central Somalia, little to no precipitation has
fallen 
throughout the season and rainfall deficits since October range from 0-50 precent of normal.  Further to the west into 
northern Kenya and the surrounding region, rains from late September through mid November were from 10-50 percent 
of normal.  While rains in northern Kenya have generally been lighter than normal during the past few weeks, the 
northeastern region is experiencing a healthy rainfall pattern of late.  Up to 50 mm of rainfall is expected during the 
next three days in parts of eastern Kenya and eastern Ethiopia.

3. Parts of northwestern Tanzania have been experiencing short term dryness locally during the months of October 
and November due to erratic precipitation in the area.  Much of this area received healthy rains during the past week, 
with 7-day totals reaching 50 mm just southeast of Lake Victoria.  While this has helped to alleviate dryness locally, 
additional precipitation is needed to remove the dryness throughout the region.  Generally light showers are expected 
in the area during the next week.

4. Evidence of dryness continues to be more widespread in parts of southern Kenya and eastern Tanzania due to 
seasonal rainfall totals that are much less than normal since September.  The area of concern extends roughly from 
Mombassa, Kenya to the coast of northern Mozambique, though areas in the north of the region depicted are 
experiencing much more serious dryness conditions.  This is due to the fact that the season is still near the beginning 
into southern Tanzania, but should be firmly entrenched to the north.  Compounding this fact are the large rainfall
deficits 
seen earlier in 2003 near the Kenya / Tanzania border.  Favaorably though, the region may possibly see moderate 
rainfall during the next week, but this will likely not be widespread.

5. Long term drought continues to affect parts of southern Mozambique and eastern South Africa (including Swaziland) 
due to poor performing rains during the 2002-2003 long season.  Further deteriorating hydrological conditions are the 
relatively erratic seasonal rains since mid-October.  Recent rainfall in parts of North State in South Africa have eased 
dryness locally, though dryness / drought continues throughout the area.  Latest precipitation forecasts for the next week
show a chance for substantial rains (up to 50-75 mm) in the area.

6. Dryness due to lighter than normal winter rainfall is seen in Lesotho, and little relief has occurred during the past
few 
weeks.  Latest rainfall forecasts indicate generally dry conditions during the next week, though the cold front that may 
bring precipitation further east may skirt the area and bring some relief.

7. Rainfall during the past week in parts of eastern Madagascar has helped to alleviate short term dryness locally in the
region, though pockets of dryness continue to exist to the north and south.  If meteorological forecasts verify, the
entire 
area should see relief during the next seven days in the form of rainfall totals from 25-75 mm.
                         
Timothy B Love