WEEKLY WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT   NOVEMBER 19, 2003  DISCUSSION: 

1. The poor performance and failure of seasonal rains in recent years has resulted in a severe multi-year
drought across the Sool Plateau in northern Somalia.  The drought has resulted in degraded pastures
and the depletion of water supplies. Although a few light showers are possible, no improvement is
expected during the period. 

2. The short season rains have been lighter than normal across much of interior Somalia, southern and
eastern Ethiopia, as well as northern Kenya. In some locations, the short rains failed all together, while
in a few isolated locations rainfall has been near normal. Increasing dryness has been observed in
extreme southeastern Sudan and northeastern Uganda as well. The dryness has resulted in degraded
pastures and water shortages across the area. Showers are expected to result in some improvement
across central Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia and northeastern Kenya. Northwestern Kenya and
northern Somalia, however, are expected to remain dry.

3. Drier than normal conditions over the past several weeks has resulted in short term dryness along the
southern lakeshore of Lake Victoria, eastern Rwanda and the bi-modal portions of northwestern
Tanzania. This has raised concerns over second season corn and sorghum. Relief from recent showers
resulted in some improvement across the region. However, conditions are expected to be dry during
the period, which will increase moisture deficits and stress to crops. Significant rains will be needed
soon to ensure good development of second season crops, which are typically harvested in January. 

4. October and November rains have been spotty and  lighter than normal across southeastern Kenya
much of eastern Tanzania. Furthermore, rainfall during the April-May season was much below normal.
The combination of short and long term drought has resulted in degraded pastures and has reduced
water supplies. The drought has also reduced moisture for second season corn emergence. Some
improvement is possible during the period in the form of occasional showers. However, a widespread
soaking rain is required for substantial improvement to occur. 

5. Recent rains have helped to boost soil moisture for summer crop planting across the area. However,
reduced groundwater supplies, river and reservoir levels have resulted from last year's drought. This
will gradually improve as late spring rains recharge water supplies over the coming weeks.  

6. Meager precipitation during the cool season in and around the land-locked kingdom of Lesotho
negatively affected winter agriculture, reduced irrigation reserves and has reduced soil moisture for
summer crop planting. Recent rainfall has improved conditions for planting, particularly in the eastern
and northern areas. Additional rainfall is needed across the western portions of the country, however,
to eliminate lingering moisture deficits. Showers are expected to result in some improvement during the
period. 

7) Dry conditions during October and November have resulted in short term dryness along the east coast
of Madagascar. This has reduced moisture for summer crop planting in the area. Some improvement is
expected during the period as a frontal system is expected to bring an increase in shower activity to the
area. The best chance for improvement will be in the south. 

AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt