WEEKLY WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT NOVEMBER 20, 2003 DISCUSSION: 1. The short season rains (Deyr Rains) have failed this year across the Sool Plateau in northern Somalia, worsening the already severe, multi-year drought. The drought has resulted in degraded pastures and depletion of water supplies. Recent light rains have offered little in the way of relief. 2. The short season rains have been spotty and much lighter than normal across much of Somalia, southern and eastern Ethiopia and northern Kenya. In some locations, the short rains failed all together. Dryness has been observed in extreme southeastern Sudan and northeastern Uganda as well. The dryness has resulted in degraded pastures and water shortages across the area. Showers have been on the increase, however, across parts of southern Ethiopia, northeastern Kenya and southern Somalia. Showers are expected to result in some improvement across the southern and eastern portions of the region, while dry weather is expected to continue across northwestern Kenya and vicinity. 3. Drier than normal conditions over the past 4 to 8 weeks have resulted in short term dryness along the southern lakeshore of Lake Victoria and across eastern Rwanda. This has raised concerns over second season corn and sorghum. Dry conditions are expected during the period, which will increase moisture deficits and stress to crops. Significant rains will be needed soon to ensure good development of second season crops, which are typically harvested in January. 4. October and early November rains have been lighter than normal across the southeastern corner of Kenya and northeastern Tanzania. Furthermore, rainfall during the April-May season was much below normal. This has resulted in degraded pastures and has reduced water supplies. The dryness has also reduced moisture for second season corn emergence. Showers are expected to result in some improvement during the period, with the best chances of rain near the Tanzanian coast. 5. Spring rains have resulted in a gradual improvement of the long term drought situation across eastern South Africa, Swaziland and southern Mozambique that were a result of last season's poor performing rains. Recent rains have slowly been recharging groundwater and reservoirs, raising river levels and boosting soil moisture for summer crop planting. Additional rainfall during the period should result in continued gradual improvement. 6. Meager precipitation during the cool season in and around the land-locked kingdom of Lesotho negatively affected winter agriculture, reduced irrigation reserves and has reduced soil moisture for summer crop planting. Recent rainfall has improved conditions for planting, particularly in the eastern and northern areas. Additional rainfall during the period should further improve moisture conditions and ease the impacts of the winter drought. Some of the rain, however, may be heavy and result in flooding. The rain may also be accompanied by strong winds and hail in some locations. 7) Dry conditions during October and early November have resulted in short term dryness along the east coast of Madagascar. This has reduced moisture for summer crop planting in the area. Only spotty light rain is expected during the period. Therefore, little improvement is expected. 8) A strong storm system is expected to move from west to east across southern South Africa during the November 23-25 period. This storm could produce heavy rains and flooding across the South African provinces of Western and Eastern Cape as well as nearby parts of Free State, Northern Cape and North- West province. Flooding is also possible in Lesotho. Furthermore, the potential for localized wind damage, hail and isolated tornadoes exists as well. 9) After a recent storm pounded northwest Africa with wind and rain, another storm is expected to produce more wind and rain. Localized flooding and landslides are again possible, along with the potential for isolated wind damage. AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt