AFRICA WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT TEXT EXPLANATION
OCTOBER 30 - NOVEMBER 5, 2003

1) Virtually no rainfall occurred over drought affected areas in and surrounding the Sool Plateau in northern Somalia during
the month of October 2003.  This area should normally receive rains from 10-50 mm over the course of October and little to no
precipitation in November.  For the season thusfar, the region has received 0-25 percent of normal precipitation and long term
drought will continue through the dry season.  Climatology states that the next season should begin sometime around late March.

2) 7-Day precipitation totals in much of southern Ethiopia ranged from 10-30 mm from October 21-27, though areas to the east
remained unseasonably dry.  The hazard region depicted here consists of two areas.  The darker shaded region to the west
represents long term dryness due to poor performing rains from June-October 2003 while the eastern area symbolizes shorter term
dryness arising from a lack of rainfall from late September to the present.  The western region should continue to see some
relief during the next week, though this moisture will not likely reach eastern problematic areas.  The fact that rainfall
normally begins to decrease in southeastern Ethiopia in early November does not bode well for dry season moisture conditions in
the area.

3) Seasonal rainfall deficits continue to threaten food security conditions from southern coastal Kenya to northern coastal
Tanzania.  Rainfall from August thru mid October has been much lighter than normal, with some areas in the region seeing
virtually no precipitation whatsoever during the period.  This seasonal dryness compounds the effects of moderate to severe
drought during the MAM season of 2003.  Meteorological conditions are becoming favorable for precipitation in the region,
though as of recent, most rainfall has been confined to north of the area.  November rains will be critical in providing
moisture for crops and livestock, as between 100-150 mm should normally fall throughout the month.

4) Moderate rainfall amounts were seen in parts of the northern Limpopo Basin in southern Mozambique and South Africa during
the last week, with accumulations reaching 75 mm in the hazard area depicted.  The rains that have fallen in October were
mainly confined to the outskirts of the area experiencing long term drought due to much below normal rains during the 2002-03
long season.  Up to 50 mm of precipitation is expected in the area during the next week, though widespread rainfall totals will
be generally around 10-25 mm.

5) The region in and surrounding Lesotho in southern Africa experienced a much drier than normal winter rainfall season and
conditions have not improved substantially during the month of October.  The area continues to receive less than normal
precipitation though slightly lower than normal temperatures should not be considerably affecting the region.  Generally light
showers are likely during the next week though rainfall may be of the hit-and-miss variety.

6) Though September 2003 rainfall amounts were near normal along coastal Natal State in South Africa, October deficits are
running from 50-100 mm below normal.  This translates to month to date rains of between 20-50 percent of normal and thus
dryness concerns exist.  Light showers are possible during the next week, with 7-day accumulations between 10-30 mm.

Timothy Love