Africa Weather Hazards Assessment Text Explanation
October 16-22, 2003

1) Rainfall decreased during the last week in parts of southern Nigeria and western Cameroon, though soil moisture remains high throughout 
the area.  Weekly precipitation totals were generally less than 75 mm in the region from October 8-14, but the previous week saw totals 
closer to 150-200 mm locally.  Latest meteorological forecast models indicate a good chance for rainfall totals up to and exceeding 150 mm 
locally during the next period, and thus local flooding concerns remain.

2) Drought continues in parts of north central Somalia due to seasonal rainfall deficits during each of the past three years.  Some 
precipitation fell over the area during the last week, though accumulations were generally light with totals not exceeding 15 mm and common 
amounts closer to 5 mm.  Forecast rainfall totals of similar magnitude are expected during the next week and would slightly help to ease 
dryness if this holds true.

3) The region in southern Ethiopia that has been experiencing seasonal dryness in 2003 received healthy rainfall during the past week, as 
widespread totals topped 15 mm and local amounts reached 50 mm.  This is complicated by the fact that the current season is already late to 
start by a week or two.  The previous 2003 season was a few weeks late and once rains arrived, they were erratic and lighter than normal.  
Indications are beginning to show dryness extending to the east and southward into north central Kenya as well.  Healthy rains are again 
expected in the hazard region throughout the next week.

4) Local flooding remains a concern in parts of western Kenya bordering Lake Victoria due to heavier than normal rainfall since September.  
October 1-12 rainfall has already reached around two-thirds of the climatologically normal October total, and additional rains, though 
somewhat lighter, are possible through the next week.  If rainfall subsides during the next period, this hazard area may be removed from 
weekly assessments but will continue to be monitored for further problems.

5) Dryness is again becoming a concern in the region extending southward from Mombassa, Kenya to Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.  March-June 2003 
rainfall in this area ranged from 10-60 percent of normal and September rains were virtually non-existent in the region.  October 
precipitation totals should normally range from 75-150 mm, though no rainfall was recorded through the first 12 days of the month.  This 
situation should be closely monitored for dryness/drought.

6) Long term drought continues in parts of eastern South Africa and southern Mozambique due to poor performing rains during the 2002-2003 
monsoon.  Normal September rainfall totals of 25-50 mm were nearly equaled in 2003.  October rains should reach 25-150 mm with the heaviest 
amounts west and south of Swaziland, and accumulations so far have ranged from 10-50 mm.  Although this is slightly drier than normal, a more 
active weather pattern is emerging and additional rainfall is expected during the next week.

7) Winter moisture conditions in and around Lesotho have been drier than normal, though temperatures have remained near normal.  Past weekly 
rainfall ranged from 10-30 mm and similar amounts are expected for the next week.  This area may be susceptible from the slightly 
slow-to-start rainy season in southern Africa.

8) A cold front, similar to that which pushed through eastern South Africa during last week may push through and east of the area from 
October 18-22.  The system has the potential to affect a region from east of Lesotho to north of Maputo, Mozambique with heavy rains, strong 
winds, and possibly large hail.  Environmental conditions which were evident during last week would be again favorable for severe weather in 
the area if the cold front maintains its forecast intensity.

Timothy Love