AFRICA WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT EXPLANATION
VALID October 9-15, 2003

1) Heavy rains fell over portions of southern Nigeria and western Cameroon during the last week, with 7-day 
accumulations exceeding 150 mm locally.  This trend is forecast to continue thru the next period, though heavy rainfall 
is normal at this time and these locations.  Flooding remains a concern though due to saturated soils and high river levels, 
especially along stream banks and in urban centers that experience heavier storms during the period.

2) Long term drought continues in parts of northern Somalia, including the towns of Garoowe, Qardho, and 
Laas Dawaco.  September saw virtually no rainfall in the area, and October remains dry as well, though October 
should normally yield from 10-50 mm of rainfall for the month.  Precipitation forecasts do not show any rainfall 
accumulations in the area during the next week.

3) Much of the area in southern Ethiopia experiencing dry conditions for the year received from 25-100 mm rainfall 
during the month of September, though normal totals should be closer to 50-200 mm.  Weekly rainfall totals from 
the past 7-days reached 20 mm in the region, and similar rains are likely during the next week.  These lighter than 
normal rainfall amounts do not spell an end to the dryness in the near future.

4) Local flooding concerns continue in parts of western Kenya in the region adjacent to northeastern Lake Victoria.  
Although widespread flooding is not likely, locally heavy thunderstorms during the next week may produce sufficient 
rainfall to cause some problems.  Rains have generally been heavier than normal since early September.

5) The coastal region extending from southeastern Kenya near the city of Malindi to northeastern Tanzania near 
Dar es Salaam has received much less than normal rainfall since September, and short term dryness is becoming a 
concern.  Though little to no rain fell during September, monthly totals should have been on the order of around 
20-60 mm.  Current atmospheric conditions to not bode well for the formation of accumulating rainfall during the 
next week, and thus the area should remain dry.

6) Though much of the drought affected area of southern Mozambique and eastern South Africa received little to no 
precipitation during the last week, an area of rainfall with 7-day totals near 40 mm was seen near Swaziland.  
Additional relief is probable during the next week, as a cold frontal system should bring moderately heavy rains 
to much of the area, especially near the coast.

7) Seasonal dryness currently in and around Lesotho did not receive much relief during the past week, though light 
to moderate rains may fall in the region during the next week.  Conditions seem to be improving somewhat in the area 
and the current weather pattern is trending toward a wet next few weeks.

8) A Strong spring cold front may bring severe weather, heavy rains, and mountain snows to part of southeastern 
South Africa, mainly from October 11-14.  While rains may benefit some areas experiencing seasonal dryness, 
other areas may see some local flooding and possibly heavy snowfall if the system intensifies as forecast.  Colder 
than normal temperatures may set into the area after the front passes through, further causing problems.

Timothy B. Love