WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT   OCTOBER 2, 2003  

DISCUSSION:

1)   Tropical Cyclone 01S (Abaimba) developed in the South Indian Ocean on September 29, and is the
first classified storm of the 2003-04 season. At the time of writing, TC 01S was several days from land. It
is drifting westward, and there is only a slight possibility that it will impact northern Madagascar or the
east coast of Africa by the end of the period. See cyclone bulletins for the latest track, intensity and
forecast information.

2)   Recent heavy rains have resulted in elevated antecedent moisture levels across southeastern Nigeria,
southwestern Cameroon, northern CAR and parts of western Ethiopia. It is possible that many of these
locations will receive significant amounts of additional rainfall during the period. As a result, the potential
for flooding exists. In mountainous areas, the potential for landslides also exists. The rains in western
Ethiopia have likely raised water levels along the Blue Nile as it flows into eastern Sudan, therefore the
potential for flooding exists along the upper portions of the Blue Nile.

3)  Much below normal rainfall three years in a row has resulted in long term drought across southern
Sanaag and northern Sool regions in Somalia. Long term drought has degraded pastures and reduced
water supplies across the area. Showers across the southern portion of the region during the last week of
September resulted in little relief. Scattered showers during the period may result in some relief, however
substantial rains are needed to ease impacts. The area's minor rainy season occurs during mid and late
September. More substantial rains typically occur during the major wet season in May and June.

4)  Rainfall across the southernmost portions of the Ethiopian highlands was below normal and erratic
during the Meher season. This may negatively impact local agriculture and water supplies. Because of the
high amount of variability and complexity of terrain across this region, some locations may have
experienced good seasonal rains while others may not have. As a result, not all areas included in the
shaded region were affected. Likewise, it is possible that some locations near, but not within, the shaded
region were affected by dryness and the erratic Meher rains.

5)   Wetter than normal conditions were observed across southwestern Kenya and adjacent parts of
Uganda during August and early September. In recent weeks, rainfall has tapered off, easing excessive
wetness. However, the potential for scattered thunderstorms exists during the period. As a result, the risk
of isolated flooding continues. Widespread flooding is not expected. In areas where significant rainfall
occurs, harvest activities may be hampered.

6)    Rainfall totals for the 2002-03 rainy season were between 40 and 65% of normal across northeastern
South Africa, southern Mozambique, and much of Swaziland. Seasonal rainfall deficits range from 150 to
400 mm across the region. This has resulted in a hydrologic drought across the region, reducing water
supplies for wells, reservoirs and watersheds. Conditions are expected to be dry until late in the period
when showers are expected. The best chance for rain will be in southern and eastern parts of the area..

7)    Winter precipitation has been lighter than normal across Lesotho and adjacent portions of South
Africa. This has reduced top soil moisture and snow water reserves for spring runoff from the mountains.
The cool season dryness has negatively impacted winter agriculture in the area. Light showers are
possible during the period.

8)    Recent rains have eased short term dryness and favored second season agriculture across
southwestern Ghana and southeastern Cote D'Ivoire. However, large long term deficits remain as a result
of the early withdrawal of the first season rains. Additional rains are expected during the period, which
will continue to favor second season crops while slowly reducing long term moisture deficits.

AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt