WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT   
                   SEPTEMBER 24, 2003  DISCUSSION: 

1)   Recent very heavy rains have resulted in elevated antecedent moisture levels across southeastern
Senegal, the Northern Region of Ghana, southern Cameroon, southeastern Nigeria, as well as adjacent
parts of neighboring countries. It is likely that many of these locations will receive significant amounts of
additional rainfall during the period. As a result, the potential for flooding exists. In mountainous areas, the
potential for landslides also exists. 

2)  Much below normal rainfall three years in a row has resulted in long term drought across southern
Sanaag and northern Sool regions in Somalia. Long term drought has degraded pastures across the area.
Some relief is possible during period with scattered showers expected. The area's minor rainy season
occurs during mid and late September. More substantial rains typically occur during the major wet season
in May and June. 

3)   Seasonal rainfall across the southernmost portions of the Ethiopian highlands has been below normal
and erratic. This may negatively impact local agriculture and water supplies. Because of the high amount
of variability and complexity of terrain across this region, some locations may be experiencing good
seasonal rains while others may not. As a result, not all areas included in the shaded region are affected.
Likewise, it is possible that some locations near, but not within, the shaded region are being affected by
dryness and erratic seasonal rains. 

4)   Recent rains have resulted in rather high amounts of moisture in parts of eastern Sudan and adjacent
Ethiopia. Scattered thunderstorms during the week may be locally heavy, mainly in northern parts of the
hazard area. As a result, the potential for flooding exists. Widespread flooding is not expected. 

5)   Above normal rains over the past 6 weeks has resulted in some flooding problems across parts of
southwestern Kenya. Seasonal showers, some of which may be locally heavy, are expected across
southwestern Kenya. As a result, the potential for flooding exists across southwestern Kenya and
adjacent parts of Uganda. Widespread flooding is not expected.

6)    Rainfall totals for the 2002-03 rainy season were between 40 and 65% of normal across northeastern
South Africa, southern Mozambique, and much of Swaziland. Seasonal rainfall deficits range from 150 to
400 mm across the region. This has resulted in a hydrologic drought across the region, reducing water
supplies for wells, reservoirs and watersheds. Recent showers across northeastern South Africa have
increased top soil moisture, but have done little to ease the drought. Except for a few showers across the
southern and western parts of the area, conditions will be dry throughout the period. 

7)   The mini dry season set in about a month early across southern Cote D'Ivoire and southwestern
Ghana. Second season rains have also been slow to start, resulting in rainfall deficits during the month of
September. This has raised concerns about second season crops in the area. However, rainfall is
expected to increase in frequency and intensity during the period, indicating a possible start to the second
wet season. 

8)   Wet weather during the past week has elevated moisture levels across parts of northwestern Africa.
An active weather pattern will bring more rainfall, some of which may be locally heavy, to northeastern
Algeria and northern Tunisia during the period. As a result, the potential for localized flooding and
landslides exists. 

AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt