WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT
                   AUGUST 27, 2003  DISCUSSION:

1)   Beneficial showers across northern Senegal and southern Mauritania
favored local agriculture, while more substantial rains passed to the
south across central and southern Senegal. Conditions this season are
better than last season, when dryness and extreme heat resulted in
severe drought. Rainfall totals so far this season, however, are still
somewhat below normal across northwestern Senegal and southwestern
Mauritania. This includes northern sections of Senegal’s Groundnut
Basin. Additional rains are needed to ensure a good cropping season and
to ease lingering impacts from last year’s drought, such as degraded
pastures. Occasional showers are expected during the period, resulting
in some further improvement.

2)  Recent heavy rainfall and an overall wetter-than-normal season has
resulted in saturated soils and swollen rivers across portions of the
Sahel. Additional heavy rains are expected across northwestern Nigeria,
extreme southwestern Niger, Burkina Faso and surrounding areas as
easterly waves seem to be favoring this region. As a result, the
potential for flooding exists in these areas throughout the period.

3)   Locally heavy seasonal rains are expected to exacerbate flooding
problems across the highlands of Eritrea and northwestern Ethiopia.
Runoff from these rains may result in additional flooding problems in
nearby Sudan along the lower stem of the Blue Nile, and some of its
tributaries. Flooding may also continue to be a problem in Sudanese
state of Kassala, which was recently impacted by serious flooding.

4)  Much below normal rainfall three years in a row has resulted in long
term drought across southern Sanaag and northern Sool regions in
Somalia. Long term drought has degraded pastures across the area. Dry
conditions are expected until mid and late September, when the second
rainy season occurs. More substantial rains typically occur during the
May-June wet season.

5)   Lighter than normal rains across southern portions of the Ethiopian
highlands and adjacent portions of southeastern Sudan has raised
concerns about reductions in regional crop production. Rainfall amounts
since June 1 are between 50 and 75% of normal. The wet season in the
southern highlands usually runs into November. Over the next several
days, showers are expected to continue, with either little change or a
gradual decrease in rainfall deficits.

6) Rainfall totals for the 2002-03 rainy season were between 40 and 65%
of normal across northeastern South Africa, southern Mozambique, and
much of Swaziland. Seasonal rainfall deficits range from 150 to 400 mm
across the region. This has resulted in a hydrologic drought across the
region, reducing water supplies for wells, reservoirs and watersheds.
Little improvement is expected until November, when the rainy season
gets under way.

7) The mini dry season set in about a month early across southern
Liberia, southern Cote D’Ivoire and southwestern Ghana. This resulted in
a very dry July and may have stressed reproductive and maturing crops in
the region. Seasonal rains across central Liberia and central Cote
D’Ivoire have been lighter than normal, with some improvement courtesy
of some recent rains. Further improvement is expected across northern
parts of the area during the next several days. Southern areas will see
scattered shower activity. However, rainfall across southern Cote
D’Ivoire and southern Ghana will increase in subsequent weeks as the
ITCZ approaches from the north and the second wet season sets in.

AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt