AFRICA WEATHER HAZARDS TEXT EXPLANATION VALID JULY 24-30, 2003 1) A severe drought last season has resulted in poor pasture conditions and moisture deficits across much of northern Senegal, southern Mauritania and adjacent portions of Mali. Over much of the southern hazard area, which is shown by the yellow hatching, beneficial rains have fallen over the past several weeks. One exception to this is over northern Senegal, which has been highlighted by the red hatching. Rain showers have continued to move northward within the general hazard area, which will help to alleviate some of the long-term deficits. 2) Over the past several weeks, beneficial rains have fallen in areas just on the east side of Lake Tana. In general, rains over the hazard region that extends from the northeastern highlands southwestward into southern Sudan have been slow to start. Forecasts indicate that there is a potential for some beneficial rainfall along the southern and eastern portions of the hazard region during the next week. This area will continue to be watched closely as long-term deficits will be magnified if seasonal rains do not begin soon. 3) A multi-year drought over northern Somalia has affected pasture lands over the region. This has especially stressed the Sanag and Sool regions. Field reports indicate that herders are moving livestock out of the regions due to deteriorating land. Water supplies may also be affected in and around the region. According to climatology over the area, the next opportunity for significant rainfall will be in September. 4) Areas along the Somalia coast will be watched for short-term dryness. Most of this region averages around 20 mm per week, however, over the past several dekads little rain has fallen. Crops grown along the coastal region may be negatively affected. Little rainfall is forecast for the upcoming week. 5) Rainfall totals during the 2002-2003 wet season were less than half of normal across much of Swaziland, northeastern South Africa and the southern most provinces of Mozambique. This includes significant portions of the Limpopo River Valley. Precipitation deficits of 150 to 400 mm have raised concerns over water shortages across the region. 6) Over past dekads, little rainfall had forced central areas of Cote dM-^RIvoire and Ghana into a flash drought; however, during the last period, significant showers brought beneficial rains to the hazard region. The area should recover as some showers produced up to 100 mm of rain. Forecasts indicate that rains should continue throughout the impending period. 7) Seasonal rainfall amounts in Liberia, Sierra Leone and portions of Guinea are well below normal. Beneficial rains fell in southern Liberia as indicated by the yellow hatched region. Crops and water supplies within the hazard region will be monitored. Forecasts indicate that little rain will fall during the next week. Author: Kevin B Laws