AFRICA WEATHER HAZARDS TEXT EXPLANATION

VALID JULY 10 - 16, 2003

1) A severe drought last season has resulted in poor pasture conditions and
moisture deficits across much of northern Senegal, southern Mauritania and
adjacent portions of Mali. In the southern portions of the hazard area,
beneficial rains fell again this week.  Some totals were greater than 75mm.
Northern portions of the region should begin their rainy season in mid- to late
July.

2) Poor performing belg rains may negatively impact long season crops near the
towns of Desee and Weldiya in northern Ethiopia.  The rains continue to slowly
move eastward towards the hazard region.  The rainfall forecast indicates that
rain will most likely remain just west of the region, however, cannot rule out a
passing shower or two.

3) Over the past week, beneficial rains fell just on the east side of Lake
Tana.  Rain in areas there and to the south and east over the hazard region have
been slow to start.  Forecasts indicate that there is a potential for more
significant rainfall throughout the hazard period.  From a historical
perspective, more substantial seasonal rains across this region should begin
within the next week.  The potential for significant negative impacts to local
agriculture will increase if the dry trend continues for the next few weeks,
this area should be watched closely!

4) A multi-year drought over northern Somalia has negatively affected pasture
lands over the region.  This has especially stressed the Sanag and Sool
regions.  Field reports indicate that herders are moving livestock out of the
regions due to deteriorating land.  Water supplies may also be affected in and
around the region.  According to climatology over the area, the next opportunity
for significant rainfall will be in September.

5) Since March 1, rainfall totals in east-central Sudan have been less than half
of normal.  Some rain fell during the preceding hazard period, but deficits
still remain in much of the immediate areas.  Forecasts during the impending
week suggests that rain showers are somewhat favorable in and around the hazard
region, but amounts may be less than normal. This area should be monitored
closely over the next several weeks.

6) Rainfall totals during the 2002-2003 wet season were less than half of normal
across much of Swaziland, northeastern South Africa and the southern most
provinces of Mozambique. This includes significant portions of the Limpopo River
Valley. Precipitation deficits of 150 to 400 mm have raised concerns over water
shortages across the region.

Author: Kevin B Laws