AFRICA WEATHER HAZARDS TEXT EXPLANATION 

VALID June 26- July 2, 2003 

1) A severe drought last season has resulted in poor pasture conditions and moisture deficits
across much of northern Senegal, southern Mauritania and adjacent portions of Mali.  Over the
past week, rain began to fall over southern parts of Senegal suggesting that over the next few
weeks, rains should begin further to the north as the ITCZ migrates towards the hazard region. 
Based on the good start to the rainy season thus far, the short-term outlook is favorable for the
area. 

2) Poor performing belg rains may negatively impact long season crops near the towns of Desee
and Weldiya in northern Ethiopia.  The forecast continues to show dryness over the region for the
first part of the hazards period.  The second portion of the week (Sunday through Wednesday),
long-range models shows the potential for more favorable conditions.  Significant rains are
expected with the onset of the Meher season in early July. 

3) Main season rains have been slow to start around and just east of Lake Tana in the Ethiopian
Highlands. This may have some impact on local agriculture as rain should be falling during early
June.  RFE Rainfall Anomaly and USGS Start of Season products suggest the dryness area is
expanding slightly south and eastward and that rains are several dekads late.  Forecasts indicate
that over the upcoming weekend and early next week, rains may begin east of Lake Tana and
spread into the Highland area.  More substantial seasonal rains across this region typically set-in
during early July.  The potential for significant negative impacts to local agriculture will increase
if the dry trend continues for the next several weeks. 

4) Rainfall totals for the March through May wet season (long rains) were between 20% and 40%
of normal across portions of northeastern Tanzania and adjacent southeastern Kenya. These
rainfall deficits may have a substantial negative impact on local crops dependant on these rains.
This area is expected to remain seasonably dry until October with the onset of the next wet
season, which is more significant for local agriculture. 

5) Rainfall totals during the 2002-2003 wet season were less than half of normal across much of
Swaziland, northeastern South Africa and the southern most provinces of Mozambique. This
includes significant portions of the Limpopo River Valley. Precipitation deficits of 150 to 400
mm have raised concerns over water shortages across the region. During this hazard period, a
significant storm system should move near the area.  High winds and some heavy rainfall can be
expected, especially near the coastline.  This should bring sone relief, but will not be significant
enough to alleviate the long-term deficits.

6) Since March 1, rainfall totals in east-central Sudan have been less than half of normal.
Forecasts over the upcoming week continue to suggest dry conditions will remain in the
immediate area.  This region should be monitored closely over the next several weeks. 

Author: Kevin B Laws