WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT   
                   JUNE 18, 2003  DISCUSSION: 

1)   A severe drought last season has resulted in poor pasture conditions and moisture deficits across
much of northern Senegal, southern Mauritania and adjacent portions of Mali. Significant improvement
is not expected until at least July, with the onset of the wet season. 

2)    Poor performing belg rains may negatively impact long season crops near the towns of Desee and
Weldiya in northern Ethiopia. Conditions are expected to remain mostly dry throughout the week.
Significant rains are expected with the onset of the Meher season in early July. 

3)   Main season rains have been slow to start around and just east of Lake Tana in the Ethiopian
Highlands. This may have some impact on local agriculture as rain should be falling during early June.
However, substantial seasonal rains across this region typically set in during late June or the beginning of
July. Therefore, no major problems are anticipated in the near term. The potential for significant negative
impacts to local agriculture will increase if the dry trend continues for several weeks. 

4)    Rainfall totals for the March through May wet season (long rains) were between 20% and 40% of
normal across portions of northeastern Tanzania and adjacent southeastern Kenya. These rainfall deficits
may have a substantial negative impact on local crops dependant on these rains. This area is expected to
remain seasonably dry until October with the onset of the next wet season, which is more significant for
local agriculture.

5)  Rainfall totals during the 2002-2003 wet season were less than half of normal across much of
Swaziland, northeastern South Africa and the southern most provinces of Mozambique. This includes
significant portions of the Limpopo River Valley. Precipitation deficits of 150 to 400 mm have raised
concerns over water shortages across the region. Seasonably dry conditions are expected during the
period. 

AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt