WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT
                   JUNE 11, 2003  DISCUSSION:

1)   A severe drought last season has resulted in poor pasture conditions and moisture deficits
across much of northern Senegal, southern Mauritania and adjacent portions of Mali. Early
showers in the extreme southern and eastern portions of the region offered minimal
relief. Southern and eastern sections may receive additional light rains this week, however only a
well established wet season will result in significant improvement. Such conditions are not
anticipated until the beginning of July.

2)    Poor performing belg rains may negatively impact long season crops near the towns of
Desee and Weldiya in northern Ethiopia. Conditions are expected to remain mostly dry
throughout the week. Significant rains are expected with the onset of the Meher season late in
June or early in July.

3)   Torrential rains during the last week of May have resulted in high river levels and flooding
along the Shebelle River in Ethiopia and Somalia.  From about the Somali town of Balcad
downstream to the mouth of the Shabelle, river levels are still quite high. With dry conditions
expected across eastern Ethiopia and interior Somalia, the high waters are expected to subside.
The Shabelle River level is expected to return to near normal by the end of the period.

4)    Rainfall totals for the March through May wet season (long rains) were between 20% and
40% of normal across portions of northeastern Tanzania and adjacent southeastern Kenya. These
rainfall deficits may have a substantial negative impact on local crops dependant on these
rains. This area is expected to remain seasonably dry until October with the onset of the next wet
season.

5)  Rainfall totals during the 2002-2003 wet season were less than half of normal across much of
Swaziland, northeastern South Africa and the southern most provinces of Mozambique. This
includes significant portions of the Limpopo River Valley. Precipitation deficits of 150 to
400 mm have raised concerns over water shortages across the region. A frontal system resulted in
showers across parts of the region. However, the relief was minimal. Seasonably dry conditions
are expected during the period.

AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt