WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT   
                   JUNE 4, 2003  DISCUSSION: 

1)   A severe drought last season has resulted in poor pasture conditions and moisture deficits across
much of southern Mauritania and northern Senegal. Significant rains are not expected until late
June/early July with the onset of the 2003 rainy season. 

2)  Rainfall totals during the 2002-2003 wet season were less than half of normal across much of
Swaziland, portions of northeastern South Africa and the southern most provinces of Mozambique.
Precipitation deficits range of 150 to 400 mm have raised concerns over water shortages for irrigation
and consumption across the region. 

3)   Torrential rains during the last week of May have resulted in high river levels and flooding along the
Shebelle River in Ethiopia and Somalia. Only occasional showers are expected across the Shabelle Basin.
As a result, the waters are expected to recede during the period from Ethiopia downstream to about the
Somali town of Balcad. From Balcad downstream to the mouth of the Shabelle, however, the water is
expected to recede very slowly. As a result, improvement will be very slow during the period along this
stretch of the Shabelle. 

4)    Somewhat drier weather helped to ease the widespread flooding which occurred during late April
into May across southwestern Kenya. Regionally, this trend is expected to continue. However, isolated
heavy showers during the period may hamper local flood recovery efforts and result isolated additional
flooding in southwestern Kenya and adjacent portions of Uganda. Widespread flooding problems are not
anticipated during the period. 

5)    Rainfall totals for the March through May wet season (long rains) were between 20% and 40% of
normal across portions of northeastern Tanzania and adjacent southeastern Kenya. These rainfall deficits
may have a substantial negative impact on local crops dependant on these rains. This area is expected to
remain seasonably dry until October with the onset of the next wet season.

6)    Late Fall high pressure is expected to settle over South Africa during the first half of the period.
Overnight lows ranging from -2C to -8C are expected across Lesotho, as well as portions of southern
South Africa during the early morning hours of the 5th, 6th and 7th. The coldest readings will be found in
the high elevation valleys. The coldest temperatures are expected on the morning of the 7th, when
minimum temperatures as low as -10C are possible in the mountain valley portions of Lesotho.
Temperatures will moderate during the last half of the period. 

7)    Poor performing belg rains may negatively impact long season crops near the towns of Desee and
Weldiya in northern Ethiopia. Conditions are expected to remain dry throughout the week. Significant
rains are expected with the onset of the Meher season late in June or early in July. 

AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt