AFRICA WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT EXPLANATIOAFRICA WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT EXPLANATION
VALID MAY 29 - JUNE 4 2003

1) Hydrological drought continues throughout much of southern Mauritania, northern Senegal,
and parts of southwestern Mali due to very poor rainfall during the 2002 season.  No relief
is expected during the remainder of May into early June.

2) Although the Belg rainfall season has come to an end in Ethiopia, some areas continue to
experience rainfall deficits due to late starting and erratic precipitation during the season.
The hazard area depicted near Desse in northern Ethiopia contains some of the greater rainfall
deficits of the region and this is affecting long season crops that exist in the area.  Little
rainfall is forecast in the area during the next week.

3) Although rainfall was generally light during the past week in the Shebelle and Jubba river
basins in Somalia and Ethiopia, heavy rainfall did fall on May 23rd and especially May 26th.
These heavy thunderstorms produced daily rainfall amounts exceeding 100 mm locally and thus
flooding concerns remain in the region.  Meteorological forecast models are indicating a chance
for locally heavy rain, mainly during the first few days of June, over the aforementioned
basins.  Thus, flooding remains possible in the areas near each river.

4) Latest ETA and GFS precipitation forecast model outputs indicate a chance for heavy rainfall
along the Kenya and northern Tanzania coasts during the next week, with 7 day totals exceeding
150 mm locally.  Although locally heavy rains are normal for the area during this time of year,
areas of flooding are possible due to saturated soil conditions and excess runoff from the
heavier thunderstorms.

5) Little change; see previous assessments for details.  Dryness continues in parts of
southern Mozambique, southern Zimbabwe, eastern Botswana, and northeastern South Africa
due to spotty areas of poor performing rains during last season. Little change in area
moisture is expected until next season.  Note that a cold front passing south of the region
failed to bring rainfall to the area during last week, but unusually cold temperatures
followed the frontal passage into the region.

6) Conditions remained generally dry in parts of northeastern Tanzania and southern Kenya
during the last week, though locally intense thunderstorms produced some moderate rainfall
totals in the area.  Seasonal precipitation deficits continue throughout the region due
to poor performing rainfall during the past two months.

7) Rainfall totals from May 22-26 exceeded 75 mm in the area of western Kenya experiencing
flooding during the past two months.  Although rainfall has been gradually decreasing in
intensity in the region, daily totals remain sufficient to cause local flooding over
saturated soils.  Current meteorological rainfall forecasts indicate generally light
amounts during the next week.



Timothy B Love