WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT
APRIL 24 - 30, 2003 DISCUSSION:

1)  Long-term dryness from the last 2 years across southern Mauritania
has resulted in poor pasture conditions and low water levels.  Reports
indicate that similar conditions exist in northern Senegal and extreme
western Mali.  Farmers are struggling and cattle are being moved
southward earlier than normal.  To further compound the water deficits,
extreme heat index values are expected around mid-week.  The hot
temperatures combined with humidity effects will be well above 50 C for
several days.
 The seasonal rains should start around the first of July and last
through October.  Current climate forecasts indicate that the region
should receive near-normal rainfall during the upcoming wet season.

2)  Dryness throughout recent years has resulted in poor pasture
conditions and low water levels across north-central Ethiopia, and
adjacent portions of Eritrea and Djibouti. Widespread showers have
continued throughout much of the hazard area, however, previous seasonal
deficits still exist in some locations.  More rain is forecast for the
upcoming week, which should continue to alleviate some of the long-term
dryness and aid in fully replenishing water supplies.

3)  Below normal rainfall totals in Guinea have resulted in low
reservoir levels, which are used in the generation of hydro-electric
power.  Rain events are becoming increasingly common in much of the
southern areas of the country.  These events are typical as per the
start of the rainy season in mid to late April. Continued showers could
bring up to 50 mm of rain during the coming week in the south and rain
is also expected to start in northern portions of the country as well.

4)  Most of the area highlighted by yellow in Kenya, southern Somalia,
northern Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, southern Uganda, and central
Ethiopia received at least 25 mm over the past 10 days.  Most of these
regions were approaching critical rainfall shortages for the impending
growing season, but this latest system brought immediate relief.
However, several areas highlighted in brown in western Ethiopia,
eastern Kenya, and northern Tanzania received minimal amounts totaling
less than 10 mm over the same time period.  These regions remain
critical and should be monitored closely.  This is especially true for
Kenya and Tanzania as the wet season should be ending within the next
few weeks.
 Forecasts indicate that more rain is expected throughout eastern
Ethiopia, western and northern Kenya, southern Somalia, Uganda, Burundi,
and Rwanda.  In fact, if heavier amounts fall in northern Kenya and
southern Somalia the potential for flooding exists, however, the
forecast amounts reveal average amounts.  The forecast for eastern Kenya
and northern Tanzania is again pessimistic for rainfall over the next
week, but an onshore flow regime and warmer sea surface temperatures
create the potential for rain shower activity in these areas.

5)  Locally heavy rains over previously dry soil in southeastern
Ethiopia and southern Somalia, have caused saturated conditions.
Reports from Jigjiga in southern Ethiopia indicate heavy rains that may
cause flooding in the Shebele river that flows into southern Somalia.
Recent rains may also affect regions near the Jubba river in southern
Ethiopia and Samolia.  Flood prone and valley regions should be
monitored.

6)  Below normal seasonal rains throughout portions of Botswana, South
Africa, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe have resulted in lower than normal crop
yields for much of the highlighted region.  Rain-free days over the next
few weeks should actually help farmers as they begin to harvest the
surviving crops.  The supplemental area highlighted in orange should be
monitored for hydrological deficits that will affect drinking water and
irrigation in the upcoming secondary growing season.

Author: Kevin B Laws