WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT APRIL 17 - 23, 2003 DISCUSSION: 1) Long-term dryness from the last 2 years across southern Mauritania has resulted in poor pasture conditions and low water levels. Reports indicate that similar conditions exist in northern Senegal and extreme western Mali. Farmers are struggling and cattle are being moved southward earlier than normal. The seasonal rains should start around the first of July and last through October. Current climate forecasts indicate that the region should receive near-normal rainfall during the upcoming wet season. 2) Dryness throughout recent years has resulted in poor pasture conditions and low water supplies across north-central Ethiopia, and adjacent portions of Eritrea and Djibouti. Widespread showers have re-started in the eastern areas, however, long-term deficits still exist. More rain is forecast for the upcoming week, which should continue to alleviate some of the dryness. 3) Below normal rainfall totals in Guinea have resulted in low reservoir levels, which aid in the generation of hydro-electric power. Several rain events were reported along the southern border and more improvement is expected during the middle to end of this month. Isolated showers could bring up to 50 mm of rain during this week. 4) There is continued dryness in Kenya, northern Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda and southern Uganda. This brings serious concerns to Kenya, especially for southern area crops and pasture lands in the north. The region should average around 30-40 mm per week, but much of the highlighted polygon received little or no rainfall over the past week. Forecasts indicate that rain should spread from west to east over the next several days, however northern Tanzania and central and eastern Kenya may receive minimal amounts. The rainy season ends over this region in early to mid-May. A new area has been highlighted over eastern and north-central Ethiopia to reflect the dryness that could affect the belg crop. This region is in mid-season, and has experienced the driest amounts on record (DMC, Kenya). Rains, however, have increased significantly over the past week and are forecast to continue over the next several days. 5) Below normal seasonal rains throughout portions of Botswana, South Africa, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe have resulted in lower than normal crop yields for much of the highlighted region. Rain-free days over the next few weeks should actually help farmers as they begin to harvest the surviving crops. The supplemental area highlighted by the orange cross-hairs should be monitored for hydrological deficits that will affect drinking water and irrigation in the upcoming secondary growing season. Author: Kevin B Laws