WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
                                  MARCH 6, 2003  DISCUSSION:

1)   Drier than normal conditions during January and February has reduced
moisture for winter grains across parts of western Morocco. Season to date
precipitation across this region is about 50 percent of normal. No rainfall
is expected during the period.

2)   A severe drought last season has resulted in poor pasture conditions and
moisture deficits across much of southern Mauritania. Significant rains are
not expected until late June/early July with the onset of the next rainy
season.

3)   Satellite rainfall estimates indicate below normal wet season rains fell
across Guinea in 2002, which has resulted in lower than normal reservoir
levels. Although there are no reports of drinking water shortages, the low
reservoirs are causing problems for hydro electric power generation, which
normally provides half of the country’s electricity. This could negatively
impact the highlighted hazard area and may have a ripple effect on the
surrounding region. Improvement is not expected until April at the earliest.
April marks the typical start of the rainy season in Guinea.

4)   Dryness in recent years has resulted in poor pasture conditions and low
water supplies across Ethiopia’s Afar region, adjacent portions of the
Tigray, Amhara and Oromiya regions, as well as parts of Eritrea and Djibouti.
Showers during the last week or so of February produced 10 to 50 mm of
rainfall. This benefitted pastures and increased moisture supplies across the
region. Little rainfall, however, is expected during the period.

5)   Little, if any rainfall was observed during the last half of February
across much of Tanzania. This dried out topsoils and has resulted in short
term dryness which may cause local crop stress. Sub-soil moisture should be
adequate due to earlier rains. The first half of the period will continue dry
with only marginal rain chances for the last half of the period.

6)   Tropical Cyclone Japhet made landfall on the central Mozambique coast
early on the morning of the 3rd. Maximum winds just prior to landfall were
estimated at 85 knots.  The remnants of Japhet are producing very heavy rains
across central Mozambique and eastern Zimbabwe. The remnants of Japhet are
expected to remain over this region for several days. As a result, the
potential for heavy rains and associated local flooding exists.  River levels
in the lower reaches of the Save, as well as the Runde River in Zimbabwe and
the Changane subbasin of the Limpopo River should see significant increases
in streamflow while heavier rains move northward impacting lower portions
of the Zambezi.  The heaviest thunderstorms may also impact some maize,
sorghum, rice and millet producing areas of Zimbabwe and Mozambique.

7)   Rainfall totals so far this rainy season are only 40 to 70 percent of
normal across much of southeastern Africa. Across extreme southern Zimbabwe,
these amounts are less than 40 percent of normal. This has resulted in
rainfall deficits of 100 to 400 mm. In eastern parts of the drought area,
torrential rains are expected. These rains will likely be too much at once to
be very beneficial. Across western areas, rainfall is expected to be light
and scattered.

Author: Chester V. Schmitt / NOAA / USGS