AFRICA WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT TEXT EXPLANATION

FEBRUARY 27 - MARCH 5, 2003


1) Drought occurring throughout parts of southern and central Mozambique, southern
Zimbabwe, eastern Botswana, and northeastern South Africa has been alleviated
somewhat during the past five days.  Heavy rains, totaling up to 100 mm fell in
parts of western Mozambique, northeastern Zimbabwe, and northeastern South Africa
since February 20.  Lighter rainfall was noted throughout the remainder of the
hazard region, with 4 day totals generally less than 30 mm.  Although these rains
have reduced hydrological dryness in the area, crop failures are already certain
due to earlier lack of rainfall.  Light rainfall is expected during the next
seven days, though heavier precipitation may fall along the southern Mozambique
coast.

2) Very heavy rains fell during the past week in parts of northwestern Mozambique
and western Madagascar, with 4 day totals exceeding 200 mm locally and widespread
amounts greater than 75 mm.  This new rainfall, when combined with heavy rains
that have been occurring during the past few weeks, has led to saturated soil
conditions and the possibility for local flooding.  Although rainfall amounts
during the next week should be somewhat lighter, regional flooding may accompany
the heavier thunderstorms.

3) The tropical disturbance which produced the recent heavy rainfall in parts of
northeastern Mozambique and western Madagascar has intensified and is moving
generally southeastward in the Mozambique Channel and brings with it the possibility
for continued heavy rainfall.  These rains should mainly fall in coastal regions of
southern Mozambique and southern Madagascar, though weekly totals could exceed 
200 mm locally.

4) Short term dryness continues throughout parts of northwestern Morocco due to
lighter than normal rainfall during the past few weeks.  Though rainfall was
heavy in late 2002, precipitation did not fall over the region in January and
early February 2003 and dryness emerged.  Spotty showers fell throughout the
region during the past week, but rainfall during the next 7 days is forecast
to be light.  Thus, dryness remains throughout the agricultural region of
northwestern Morocco.

5) Long term drought continues throughout much of central and northern Ethiopia
as well as eastern Eritrea, though some rainfall is possible in western parts
of the hazard region during the next week.  From February 20-23, locally heavy
rainfall was recorded in parts of the Ethiopian Highlands, as 4 day totals
exceeded 50 mm locally.  Meteorological forecast models are indicating the
chance for similar rainfall during the next week.  While most rainfall should
fall over higher terrain, there is a chance that some lighter amounts may be
seen in lower elevations.

6) Up to 25 mm of rainfall was recorded in extreme southeastern Guinea during
the past 4 days, though much of the dryness remains unchanged throughout the
country.  Additional rainfall up to 25 mm is again expected near the Liberia/
Cote d'Ivoire border region during the next week.

7) Hydrological dryness persists throughout much of southern Mauritania due to
almost failing rainfall during the last season.  Little relief is expected
until possibly July-August when rainfall normally begins in the area.

8) COntinued convective activity over parts of the upper Zambezi river basin
has resulted in saturated soil conditions in the Angola/Zambia border region.
Although hydrological models are indicating that southeastern Angola is
currently experiencing higher river levels than areas further north, the threat
for heavy rains is greater toward northern Angola during the next week.  With
the possibility for spotty thunderstorms throughout the region, the entire
area has been highlited mainly to indicate that flooding may be associated
with any strong rains.


Timothy B Love