WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT
              FEBRUARY 20-26, 2003 DISCUSSION:

1)   Much of the hazard area in southern Africa received some relief as
widespread rain showers moved through the region over recent days.
Reports have shown that rainfall in much of the area is still well below
normal for the season, while isolated regions within the polygon are
near normal.  Most of the area should continue to be monitored; however,
the maize crop should be near or just past its critical growing stage.
Forecast models predict widespread showers over much of the polygon area
within the next few days, so more relief could be on the way.
      The red highlighted region within the polygon has remained dry
over the past week, and should be slightly more concerning.  Reports
from FEWS NET representatives in Mozambique indicate about 90% crop
failure rates, which will make this season’s yields disastrous in the
southern part of the country.

2)   Saturated conditions, which continue in southern Malawi, northern
Mozambique and Madagascar could lead to isolated areas of  flooding as
heavy rains are forecast to continue over the next week.  The
northwestern coast of Madagascar is forecast to receive extreme amounts
of rain within the next few days as convection moves in from the
Mozambique Channel.  Flood prone areas should be monitored closely as
convective showers could bring weekly totals greater than 100 mm of
rain.

3)   Short-term dryness continues to affect northwestern Morocco.  Most
of the polygon region has seen limited rain in the past two months.
Significant rainfall is not forecast during the impending period.

4)   Dryness throughout recent years has resulted in poor pasture
conditions and low water supplies across central Ethiopia, and adjacent
portions of Eritrea and Djibouti. Rainfall is not forecast over the
region within the next week.

5)   Below normal rainfall totals in Guinea have resulted in low
reservoir levels, which aid in the generation of hydro-electric power.
Improvement is expected around April or the start of the next rainy
season in the region.

6)   Hydrological dryness continues across much of southern Mauritania
resulting in poor pasture conditions. Significant rains are not expected
until the next growing season, which generally begins in July.

Author: Kevin B Laws