WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT JANUARY 9, 2003 DISCUSSION: WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT JANUARY 16, 2003 DISCUSSION: 1) The last few days have brought freezing conditions to the higher elevations in Morocco and Algeria. Expect these conditions to continue over the next week with temperatures ranging from 0 to -15 degrees Celsius. Freezing temperatures and associated dry air can negatively affect winter wheat and barley grown in the area, although most of the extreme temperatures will be in the highest elevations. 2) Hydrological dryness continues across much of southern Mauritania resulting in poor pasture conditions. Significant rains are not expected until the next growing season, which generally begins in July. 3) Dryness throughout recent years has resulted in poor pasture conditions and low water supplies across central Ethiopia, and adjacent portions of Eritrea and Djibouti. Rainfall is not forecast over the region within the next week. 4) Below normal rainfall totals in Guinea has resulted in low reservoir levels, which aid in the generation of hydro-electric power. Improvement is expected around April or the start of the next rainy season in the region. 5) Most of southern Africa received greater than 20 mm of much-needed rainfall over the past week; however, most of the region is still well below normal for the month. The area highlighted should be monitored closely for the potential for crop failure due to continuing dry conditions. The forecast for this week shows little or no rainfall for a large part of the region. 6) Saturated conditions in southern Malawi, north and central Mozambique, and northern Madagascar could lead to isolated areas of flooding as rains continue over the next week. Flood prone areas should be monitored closely as any convective showers could bring over 50 mm of rain over the next several days. Author: Kevin B Laws