WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT
                                
              DECEMBER 4, 2002 DISCUSSION:   

1)   A severe drought last season has resulted in poor pasture conditions and moisture deficits
across much of southern Mauritania. Light showers fell across the area over the preceding two
weeks. However, the rain was far too light to provide any appreciable relief. Significant rains are
not expected until late June/early July with the onset of the next rainy season. 

2)   Satellite rainfall estimates indicate below normal wet season rains across Guinea, which has
resulted in lower than normal reservoir levels. Although there are no reports of drinking water
shortages, the low reservoirs are causing problems for hydro electric power generation, which
normally provides half of the country's electricity. This could negatively impact the highlighted
hazard area and may have a ripple effect on the surrounding region. Improvement is not expected
until April at the earliest. April marks the typical start of the rainy season in Guinea. 

3)   Dryness in recent years has resulted in poor pasture conditions and low water supplies across
Ethiopia's Afar region, adjacent portions of the Tigray, Amhara and Oromiya regions, as well as
parts of Eritrea and Djibouti.

4)   Drier than normal conditions during October and November may have a negative impact on
second season crops across much of Burundi, Rwanda and extreme southwestern Uganda.
Rainfall during the first week of December continued to be spotty and lighter than normal.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the period may result in some improvement. 

5)   Heavy rains may produce in excess of 200 mm of precipitation during the period across parts
of northern Mozambique, central Malawi and Zambia. As a result, risk of flooding exists across
the area, which includes the cities of Lilongwe, the capital of Malawi and Lusaka, the capital of
Zambia. 

6)   A very dry October-November has resulted in early rainfall deficits across portions of
southeastern Africa. The effects of the dryness were mitigated by cooler than normal
temperatures. Recent rains have improved the overall moisture situation across the South African
provinces of North-West, Freestate and parts of KwaZulu-Natal. Large deficits, however, still
exist across Swaziland, southwestern Mozambique, northeastern South Africa, southern
Zimbabwe and extreme eastern Botswana. Early rainfall deficits also exist across southern
Malawi and Sofala, Zambezia and Tete provinces in Mozambique. Some improvement is
expected across the region as the state of the atmosphere is expected to become more favorable
for convection. The best chance for significant rainfall exists across northeastern South Africa,
southwestern Zimbabwe, southern Malawi and central Mozambique. Southeastern Zimbabwe
and southern Mozambique, however, are expected to remain mostly dry. 

Author: Chester V. Schmitt