WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT
                                
              DECEMBER 4, 2002 DISCUSSION:   

1)   A severe drought last season has resulted in poor pasture conditions and moisture deficits
across much of southern Mauritania. A few isolated light showers during the week of Nov 26 -
Dec 2 offered little if any relief. Most areas, however, remained seasonably dry. Significant rains
are not expected until late June/early July with the onset of the next rainy season. 

2)   An active weather pattern associated with an enhanced jet stream across the North Atlantic
has produced abundant, and largely beneficial, rainfall across Northwest Africa. Periodic rains
are expected to persist throughout the period producing 50 to locally 100+ mm. As a result, the
potential for localized flooding and landslides exists. Major flooding, however, is not expected. 

3)   Dryness in recent years has resulted in poor pasture conditions and low water supplies across
Ethiopia's Afar region, adjacent portions of the Tigray, Amhara and Oromiya regions, as well as
parts of Eritrea and Djibouti.

4)   Drier than normal conditions during October and November may have a negative impact on
second season crops across much of Burundi, Rwanda and extreme southwestern Uganda. Below
normal rainfall is expected during the period. As a result, a gradual increase in moisture deficits
is anticipated. 

5)   The wet season is off to a very slow start across parts of southeastern Africa. October-
November rainfall totals range from 10 to 40% of normal across most of South Africa's Maize
Triangle, eastern Botswana, much of southern and western Zimbabwe, Swaziland and Lesotho.
October-November, 2002 ranks among one of the driest in 20 years across eastern portions of the
Maize Triangle. Much below normal rainfall during October-November was also observed in
southern Malawi as well as central Mozambique's Tete, Sofala and Zambezia provinces. The
saving grace with this developing drought has been the cooler than normal temperatures, which
in past years has helped to prevent major crop losses in the presence of dryness by reducing
evaporation. Expect seasonal temperatures and mostly dry conditions across northern portions of
the Maize Triangle, eastern Botswana, central/southern Mozambique and Zimbabwe during the
period. This will also be the case across south-central portions of Zambia, which has been dry as
well. There does exist the potential, however, for some shower activity towards the end of the
period across these areas. Widespread thunderstorms in northern Mozambique may occasionally
expand into Malawi. At this time, however, it appears the country will remain dry. Further south,
showers and storms early in the period will provide some improvement across the southern
Maize Triangle, South Africa's KwaZulu-Natal province and Swaziland. 



Author: Chester V. Schmitt