WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT
                                
               OCTOBER 23, 2002 DISCUSSION:  

1)   One of the worst droughts in recent history had resulted in wet season rainfall totals around
half of normal across much of Senegal, southern Mauritania, Gambia and portions of western
Mali. Lingering impacts from such drought, such as low reservoirs, low river levels and very
poor pasture conditions continue across the area.  

2)   Scattered thundershowers provided some dryness relief across Cote D'Ivoire and the
surrounding areas. Rainfall amounts, however, remain much below normal, indicating a possible
failure of the second mini wet season rains. This raises concerns about second-season crops
across southern Cote D'Ivoire which depend on these rains. Drier than normal conditions are also
being observed across portions of southern Liberia. 

3)   Heavy seasonal rains are expected across portions of southern Nigeria and southern
Cameroon. In areas where the rains are heaviest, flooding problems may occur. Widespread
flooding, however, is not expected. 

4)   Dryness in recent years has resulted in poor pasture conditions and low water supplies across
the Afar region of  Ethiopia and adjacent areas. No rainfall is expected during the period,
indicating that the dry season is setting in. 

5)   Moist easterly flow off of the Indian Ocean may generate locally heavy rains along the
southern coast of Kenya and the northern coast of Tanzania. Where the heaviest rains fall,
flooding may occur. Widespread flooding, however, is not expected. 

Author: Chester V. Schmitt