WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT OCTOBER 16, 2002 DISCUSSION: 1) October typically marks the beginning of the eight month dry season in and around Senegal. Therefore, the damage to the regions main season agriculture has already been done. Furthermore, recent rains have benefitted short-cycle crops in the region and have increased moisture supplies for soil, reservoirs, rivers and lakes. Lingering long-term impacts, such as poor pasture conditions, low groundwater levels and low stream flows, are possible. 2) After the climatological mini dry season across southern Cote D'Ivoire and Ghana, rains have been slow to return for the second part of the region's bimodal wet season. Rainfall over the past several weeks has been spotty at best, resulting in 45-day total rainfall amounts that are less than 30% of normal. This has raised concerns over the second season crops, typically sown in August/September, which depend upon these rains. Substantial rains are needed in order to ensure establishment of the second season crop. Rainfall is expected to be light once again during the period, although the potential exists for more substantial rains in southwestern Ghana and adjacent portions of Cote D'Ivoire. 3) Heavy rains are expected to produce 100 to 200 mm of rainfall across portions of southeastern Nigeria, southwestern Cameroon and adjacent portions of Equatorial Guinea of during the period. As a result, the potential for flooding exists across the region. 4) Dryness in recent years has resulted in poor pasture conditions and low water supplies across much of the Afar region of Ethiopia. No rainfall is expected during the period, indicating that the dry season is setting in. 5) Widespread rains across much of southern Somalia has produced up to 100 mm of rainfall since the beginning of October. These rains have been mostly beneficial. However, with more rainfall expected during the period (25 - 75+ mm), the potential for localized flooding exists along and in the vicinity of the lower portions of the Shabeelle and Jubba Rivers. This includes the Somali capital of Mogadishu. Author: Chester V. Schmitt