WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
                                
September 5, 2002 DISCUSSION:

1) Another round of showers and thunderstorms moved over western Mali and southern Senegal
during the previous week, with total rainfall accumulations in excess of 75-100 mm locally.
Though this rainfall has helped to ease dryness throughout the area, significant seasonal
deficits continue to exist due to the southerly path that storms have followed this year.
As the intertropical convergence zone has reached its northward peak during the past few
weeks, rains should begin to diminish in the drought affected area as northerly winds
continue to push the ITCZ back to the south.

2) Weekly precipitation totals of up to 100 mm were estimated near the Afar region in 
northern/central Ethiopia during the previous period, as daily thunderstorms brought
continued relief to the area.  Rainfall totals in excess of 50 mm are possible during the
next week as dryness continues to decrease throughout the area.  With continued moderate
rainfall during at least the next two weeks, the threat for a severe hydrological crisis 
would diminish significantly, though an early end to the rains would be detrimental.

3) Late starting rains in parts of southwestern Ethiopia and southeastern Sudan have
resulted in short term dryness throughout the area.  Though rains are generally light
during the current period, the very late start (3 weeks+) to the seasonal rainfall has
hampered agricultural growth in the area.  An area of moderate rainfall (20-55 mm) was
recorded in the northern tip of the hazard area during the past week, and additional
light rain is possible during the next week, mainly along the northern fringe of the
region.

4) Little rainfall was recorded throughout the long term drought affected area near the
upper Limpopo basin in eastern Botswana, southern Zimbabwe, northeastern South Africa,
and southwestern Mozambique during the past week.  Meteorological forecast models are
indicating the possibility for a low pressure system to move near the eastern region of
the hazard during the next few days.  Precipitation associated with this disturbance
may fall in southern Mozambique and possibly further westward into the area experiencing
hydrological drought.

5) A low pressure system is forecast to move near the Western Cape in South Africa around
September 8th, and may bring periods of heavy rain to lower elevations and brief moderate
snowfall to the adjacent mountains.  As the trough moves eastward during the next two days,
surface low pressure is forecast to intensify and move in a eastward direction generally
following the coast.  Conditions may become favorable toward Kwazulu Natal and extreme 
southern Mozambique for locally heavy rain and mountain snow.

6) Easterly waves and other weather disturbances should move over higher terrain near the
Nigeria / Cameroon border during the next week, and associated convective thunderstorms
have the potential to produce rainfall accumulations near 150 mm locally.  As daytime
heating destabilizes the atmosphere, daily showers will occur over already saturated
soils in the region, and local stream flooding may result.

Timothy B Love