AFRICA WEEKLY WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT

August 1-7, 2002  TEXTUAL EXPLANATION

1) During the past week, rainfall has increased throughout much of north central Ethiopia
   into Eritrea, although the heaviest precipitation was noted along the west-central area
   of the hazard region.  Weekly rainfall totals greater than 100 mm were noted in this
   western region, just east of the town of Desee.  Lighter rains ranging from 10-50 mm
   fell throughout the remainder of the region.  Though the rains are forecast to continue
   accumulating in the area during the next week, they have been slightly late to arrive.
   Continued periods of moderate rainfall throughout the next few weeks are needed to avert
   the agricultural crisis at hand.

2) Little to no precipitation was seen to fall along coastal areas of southern Somalia, 
   Kenya, and extreme northeast Tanzania during the past week, and this trend is expected
   to continue throughout the next week.  Rainfall totals since June 1, 2002 remain
   between 10-50% of normal with deficiencies from 25-50 mm, as climatologically normal
   rains have failed to push onto the coast the past weeks.  Therefore, dryness continues
   to exist throughout the hazard area.

3) Unlike the period from July 18-24, last week saw a return of dry conditions in the
   hydrologically dry areas of eastern and southern Zimbabwe, parts of western Mozambique,
   central and eastern Botswana, and northeastern South Africa.  Some rainfall is possible
   during the first half of the forecast period in areas of central and southern 
   Mozambique and possible further westward into Zimbabwe.  Any rains that do occur are
   likely to be on the light side, although some heavier rainfall could move into extreme
   southern Mozambique later in the period.

4) An area of low pressure and associated surface cold front may bring periods of unsettled
   weather to southwestern parts of Western Cape in South Africa during August 1-3.  Forecast
   models are indicating a tightly wound system that will begin affecting the Cape Town
   region on the first of the month.  This cold front has the potential to produce periods
   of heavy rainfall and strong winds, with snowfall in the higher elevations, as it moves 
   eastward.

5) Rainfall weakened during the last week in areas of central Nigeria, but precipitation 
   totals in excess of 100 mm for the week were noted in southeastern areas of the country.
   Moderate rainfall, combined with unfavorable river dam conditions led to flooding
   throughout the city of Lagos.  Meteorological forecast models are indicating the 
   continued possibility of rainfall exceeding 100 mm for the next seven days in parts of
   central, southern, and southeastern Nigeria.  With saturated soil conditions, rainfall
   may again lead to areas of flooding during the next week.

6) Lighter than normal rains fell again during previous week in areas of western and
   northern Senegal, western Mali, and southern Mauritania, and dryness is noted throughout
   the area.  Particularly in Senegal, seasonal rains have been lighter than normal since
   July, and dry soil conditions have been found in the area.  The ITCZ location from 
   5-15 degrees west longitude remains much south of its climatologically normal position,
   contributing to the observed dryness.  Although some precipitation is currently falling
   in Senegal, this rain is expected to end by August 2, where dry conditions should follow.

7)  Current soil moisture products continue to show dryness in parts of southeastern
    Sudan, extending from the Upper Nile state through Al Buhayrat to the southwest.  Some
    rains fell to the north of the current hazard area during the previous week,
    alleviating dryness in the area, but little precipitation was recorded to the south.
    Although current rainfall forecast models are showing a similar situation for the next
    week, dryness should continue barring an extended period of heavier than normal
    rainfall accumulation.

Timothy B Love