WEEKLY AFRICA WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
                        
JULY 18, 2002 DISCUSSION:  

1)  During the previous week from July 9-15, moderate rainfall was recorded over parts of north
    central Ethiopia near the city of Dese along the eastern edge of the Highlands.  Although these
    weekly accumulated rainfall amounts, locally greater than 75 mm, may show that rains are
    beginning nearly on time in the area, the region must be continued to be monitored for any sign
    of a weaker than normal rainfall season.  Current meteorological forecast models are not 
    indicating healthy rains during the next few days at least.

2)  After a day or two of moderately heavy rainfall along areas of extreme southern coastal Somalia,
    dryness has returned to the area.  Although this area, including all of coastal Kenya and a
    small region of northeast Tanzania, remains unseasonably dry, local areas have been receiving
    light rain during the past week.  Favorable wind and moisture patterns are leading forecast
    models to predict continued spotty light rainfall, but weekly totals will generally be less than 
    5 mm with slightly higher amounts possible locally.

3)  The dry season continues over southern Africa, and hydrological drought remains throughout parts
    of southern Mozambique, northeastern South Africa, eastern Botswana, and in southern Zimbabwe 
    as well as near Harare.  Based on recently obtained river stream flow graphs, it has been
    determined that most of eastern Zimbabwe is exhibiting hydrological drought conditions as well,
    as river flows in the region are less than 25% of normal.  Most of the surrounding area remains 
    dry as well, but not to the extent of areas highlighted.

4)  Heavy rainfall throughout parts of central and southeastern Nigeria may lead to periods of
    downstream flooding throughout the forecast period.  Rains in excess of 100 mm for the week,
    combined with saturated soil conditions may lead to periods of water runoff in areas receiving 
    heavier daily rainfall amounts.  The hazard should decrease in the next few weeks as the ITCZ
    and heaviest rains move northward.

5)  A region in southeastern Sudan extending from upstream portions of the White Nile southwestern to
    near the city of Bentiu continues to show signs of abnormal dryness and has now been labeled as a 
    hazard.  Precipitation anomalies for the current month are running 15-60 mm below normal, while 
    June deficits were 25-85 mm or 5-50% of normal.  Satellite vegetation imagery over the region
    shows drier than normal conditions as well.  Lighter than normal precipitation is forecast for 
    the next week, and the position of the ITCZ over the area remains south of normal.


Timothy B Love