WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
                        
JULY 11, 2002 DISCUSSION:  
  

1)  Virtually no precipitation fell during the past week from the central Rift Valley area to 
    points northeast, as rains were mainly confined to The Highlands.  Although rains do not normally
    begin until mid July in this region, the current situation does not bode well for future
    hydrometeorological concerns.  A look at the most recent ITCZ analysis for eastern Africa shows
    a southward bias compared to its climatologically normal position.  This would tend to delay
    rains in the monitored area, and in fact June rainfall totals were lower than normal for much
    or Ethiopia.  Current metoerological forecast models are indicating a chance of light rainfall 
    over the Hazard area during July 12-14, but dryness is forecast for the remainder of the period.

2)  Although moderate rains on July 8-9 helped to reduce dryness in extreme southern coastal Somalia, 
    the area immediately to the north remains drier than normal for the season.  This dryness covers 
    all of coastal Kenya and extreme northeastern Tanzania as well, as unfavorable winds have 
    prevented rains from reaching the coast for most of the past few months.  During the next week, 
    winds should again become unfavorable for coastal rainfall, and relatively low atmospheric 
    moisture content should further lessen the possibility for measurable rains.

3)  The dry season continues over southern Africa, and hydrological drought remains throughout parts
    of southern Mozambique, northeastern South Africa, eastern Botswana, and in southern Zimbabwe 
    as well as near Harare.  Most of the surrounding area remains dry as well, but not to the extent
    of the areas noted.

4)  Heavy rainfall and saturated soil conditions may result in periods of localized flooding through
    the next week along coastal Cote d'Ivoire, and along the southern areas of the Niger River in
    Nigeria and the Sanaga River in Cameroon.  Although heavy rains may occur throughout the 
    surrounding areas, abnormal conditions are unlikely to exist outside of the hazard regions.

5)  An intense upper level low pressure system will dip southward and could bring heavy rain and
    strong winds to areas of northeastern Algeria and northern Tunisia from July 13-15.  A 
    circulation pattern is forecast to dislocate from a low pressure system currently located over
    the U.K. and will dip quickly southward towards northwestern Africa.  As the low pressure area
    nears the African coast, it is expected to intensify and has the potential to bring a period
    of severe weather to the hazard area.


Timothy B Love