WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT JULY 4, 2002 DISCUSSION: 1) Due to recent years of drier than normal conditions throughout parts of north central Ethiopia east of the highlands, the area is experiencing dry conditions that will worsen if approaching seasonal rains are lighter than normal. As the normal start to the rains occurs in late June or July, the fact that little precipitation has yet to be recorded does not bode well for the hydrological situation in much of the Afar and eastern Shoea regions in Ethiopia. The area will be monitored for changing conditions. 2) Dryness continues to increase in parts of coastal Kenya and southern coastal Somalia, as rainfall continues to be lighter than normal throughout the area. Meteorological forecast models are indicating continued dryness, as rains look to stay offshore throughout the forecast period. Little rainfall is expected during the next weeks as climatological dryness sets in. 3) Little has changed in the drought affected region near Harare, Zimbabwe as well as northeastern South Africa, central and eastern Botswana, southern Mozambique, and southern Zimbabwe. As additional information related to the hydrological situation is obtained, the hazard area depicted will be altered accordingly. 4) Due to saturated soil conditions and heavy forecast rainfall, parts of northwestern DRC, northwestern Cameroon, southern and eastern Nigeria, coastal Cote d'Ivoire, and coastal Ghana will likely see periods of local flooding as the most intense thunderstorm clusters pass over the area. Daily rainfall amounts could be up to or exceeding 100 mm in isolated areas. 5) Daily rainfall amounts may be high enough to produce areas of isolated flooding in southwestern Mali and northeastern Guinea. Although widespread flooding is not expected, a few westward moving thunderstorms may have the potential for brief heavy rainfall. 6) Dryness is occurring in the maize producing areas of Mali and southwestern Burkina Faso due to below normal June rainfall in parts of the region. Although rainfall deficiencies are not too large, observations of the vegetative conditions confirm dryness throughout the area. Current satellite products indicate that convective easterly waves are tending to dip southward and away from the hazard area, thus the potential for significant precipitation accumulation during the next week is less than optimal. 7) Elevation induced thunderstorms are forecast to bring moderate to heavy rainfall to parts of northwestern Ethiopia during the next week. Rainfall in excess of 150 mm for the week may lead to areas of downstream flooding, especially in northwestern areas of the hazard region.