WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
                                
                JUNE 5, 2002 DISCUSSION:


1)   Recent heavy rains across the western highlands of Ethiopia indicate that the
rainy season may well be underway. Rainfall and soil moisture data indicate that the
soil may be close to saturation across this area. This, combined with the potential
for 25 to 100 mm of rainfall during the period, has resulted in the potential for
flooding and landslides across the western highlands of Ethiopia. 

2)   Sparse rainfall during April and May has resulted in dryness across parts of
southeastern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania. The dryness may stress maturing
main season crops and reduce water supplies. The potential exists for beneficial
showers on June 8th, 9th and 10th, as the wind pattern is expected to become
favorable for shower activity. The chances for rain are greatest near the coast. 
 
3)   A drought during the last half of the 2001-02 rainy season has resulted in large
moisture deficits across the Limpopo River Basin in southeastern Africa. This
has reduced water availability to reservoirs, wells and rivers across the area. Recent
unseasonably heavy rains across southern portions of the Limpopo Basin have resulted 
in some short term improvement. However, more substantial and consistent rainfall would
be required to ease the long-term deficits that exist.  Rains of this type are not
expected until November when the rainy season typically begins. 

4)   Locally heavy seasonal rains may result in localized flooding problems across
southern Cote D'Ivoire, southeasternrn Ghana, southeastern Nigeria, Cameroon and 
parts of extreme western CAR. Widespread flooding problems, however, are not 
anticipated. 


  
Author: Chester V. Schmitt