WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT 
  
                May 29, 2002 DISCUSSION: 
  

1)  The position of the ITCZ east of 5 deg east longitude is south of normal. This has 
    kept seasonal rains from advancing northward into parts of southern Chad, northern CAR, 
    Sudan and western Ethiopia. Rainfall will be needed soon for maize and sorghum planting. 

2)  Sparse rainfall has resulted in drier than normal conditions across parts of southeastern 
    Kenya and adjacent portions of northeastern Tanzania. Rainfall is expected along coastal 
    areas throughout the period. Inland areas, however, will remain dry. The prospects for rain 
    across inland areas will remain poor until October, when the second rainy season of the year 
    typically begins. 

3)  A drought during the last half of the 2001-02 rainy season has resulted in large moisture 
    deficits across the Limpopo River Basin in southeastern Africa. This has reduced water 
    availability to reservoirs, wells and rivers across the area.  Showers are  expected  during 
    the period, resulting in some improvement. Late May/early June are typically dry  across 
    southeastern Africa. Therefore, any rain that falls will be a surplus. Weekly totals are 
    expected to range from a few millimeters across central Botswana/southern Zimbabwe to 
    to 30 + millimeters across southern Botswana and northeastern South Africa. 

4)  A strong cold front is expected to push through central South Africa May 30th  & 31st. Ahead 
    of the front, showers and thunderstorms are expected. Some of the thunderstorms could be 
    locally severe, containing heavy downpours, hail and strong winds. As a result, localized 
    flash flooding, hail and wind damage is possible. Widespread problems, however, are not 
    expected. 

5)  Locally heavy rains could result in areas of flooding across southern Nigeria and much of 
    Cameroon during the period. Isolated flooding is also possible across southwestern most 
    portions of Sudan, eastern CAR and northeastern DRC. Widespread flooding is not expected. 
  
Author: Chester V. Schmitt