WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
                                
		May 09, 2002 DISCUSSION:

1)   As of May 9 at 0900 GMT, cyclone 23S (Kesiny) was located approximately 90 nautical
     miles east of the northern tip of Madagascar.  The official forecast from the Joint
     Typhoon Warning Center was for Kesiny to make landfall slightly after 1800Z on May 9th 
     near the northern tip of Madagascar with sustained winds of 65 knots and gusts to 80 
     knots.  The cyclone is then forecast to cross into the Mozambique channel.  With the warm
     sea surface temperatures observed in the channel, it would be possible for Kesiny to 
     regain strength, and upon a second landfall, produce locally heavy rains and flooding.  
     The system will be closely monitored and cyclone bulletins will be disseminated as needed.

2)   A potent upper level and associated surface trough passed over northwestern Africa from
     May 6-8 and brought moderate to heavy rainfall in areas of northern Algeria and Tunisia.
     Although this precipitation helped to ease dryness in parts of northwestern Algeria and
     northeastern Tunisia, locations in between saw lesser accumulations.  Looking at areal
     average rainfall from the past three and six months in the noted dry areas, it is seen
     that north central Algeria and northern Tunisia precipitation totals remain near 50% of 
     normal.  Thus, the much of the dry area is maintained in the assessment.

3)   Although 7-day forecast rainfall totals have declined from the previous dekad, the threat
     of flooding continues throughout parts of southern Somalia and east central Kenya.  Basin
     excess rainfall maps and soil moisture products indicate the likelihood of saturated 
     conditions existing throughout the region, so typical thunderstorm activity may lead to
     local episodes of flooding.  The greatest chance for this to occur would be in the eastern
     area of the noted hazard region.

4)   Satellite estimated rainfall data from the past week indicate drier than normal conditions
     existing in parts of coastal Kenya and coastal northern Tanzania.  Although the rainfall
     deficiencies observed are only 20-40 mm for the week, this has been a continuing trend 
     during the past month.  Vegetation indices tend to substantiate the area of dryness, and
     meager forecast precipitation will likely continue this trend during the next period.

5)   Field reports from the hydrological drought affected region in southern Mozambique have
     led to a removal part of the dry area in this week's Hazards Assessment.  It was noted that
     stream and reservior levels in southeastern Mozambique are higher than regions to the
     west due to water flowing from adjacent parts of South Africa.  Rainfall during the past
     few months was normal to above normal throughout much of southeastern South Africa, as
     high pressure further to the northwest led to almost daily thunderstorm formation over
     the area.  As is expected, little rainfall is forecast during the next few months.

6)   Daily intense showers and thunderstorms are expected to drop moderate to heavy rainfall
     over already saturated areas from coastal east Nigeria to extreme western DRC, and from
     central Kenya to eastern Burundi.  Heavy weekly rainfall, locally greater than 150 mm,
     fell throughout much of an area surrounding Lake Victoria during the past two weeks.  This
     has increased the occurrence of local flooding and mudslides, and heavy forecast
     precipitation during the next week may lead to additional problems.  Although
     meteorological forecast models do not currently indicate any one area of heaviest rains
     in the Gulf of Guinea region, the possibility exists for locally heavy rainfall throughout.
  
Author: Timothy B Love