WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
                                
           May 2-8, 2002 DISCUSSION:
                                
1)   Adequate March and April rains have helped to ease long term drought conditions across
     much of Northwest Africa. Across some of the crop areas of Algeria and Tunisia,
     however, precipitation totals since Jan. 1 are less than 50% of normal. Improvement is
     expected during the period as a dip in the jet stream is expected to bring showery
     conditions to Algeria and Tunisia. 

2)   Below normal rainfall since mid-March has resulted in persistent dryness across parts of
     northeastern Tanzania and southeastern Kenya. Rainfall totals since March 1 are less than
     50% of normal, which may have resulted in moisture stress for main season crops.
     Dryness is expected to continue though the period, as the chances for measurable rainfall
     are slight.  Rainfall amounts typically fall off during the month of May as the dry season
     approaches. 

3)   Above normal rainfall during the month has ended the long term drought across southern
     Somalia, northeastern Kenya and southeastern Ethiopia. The heavy rains, however, have
     resulted in some flooding problems across the area.  Daily thunderstorms are expected
     throughout the period. With the rivers already swollen and much of the soil saturated, any
     additional rains will exacerbate flooding. As a result, the risk for flooding exists for much
     of central and southern Somalia, extreme southeastern Ethiopia and extreme northeastern
     Kenya during the period. Furthermore, a tropical disturbance north of Madagascar is
     expected to move towards the Somali coast. At this time, it is expected to turn eastward
     and remain off the coast. However, there exists the possibility that the disturbance could
     move onshore during the period. This would result in heavy rainfall and could result in
     more widespread flooding across the hazard area.

4)   Rainfall totals during the 2001-02 wet season were between 35 and 70% of normal across
     most of the Limpopo basin, resulting in rainfall deficits of 100 to 400 mm. This has
     resulted in low river levels and low reservoir storage levels across southern Zimbabwe,
     southern Mozambique, extreme eastern Botswana and extreme northeastern South Africa.
     A cold front is expected to produce thundershowers across Gaza province in
     Mozambique. Otherwise, seasonably dry weather is expected across the area during the
     period. Widespread improvement is not expected until November, when the spring rains
     typically begin.

5)   Very heavy rains during the last half of April combined with the potential for locally
     heavy thunderstorms during the period has resulted in the risk of localized flooding
     problems across southeastern Nigeria and adjacent portions of Cameroon. Widespread
     flooding, however, is not anticipated.