PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JULY 2011 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND NEGATIVE ONE DEGREE TO POSITIVE ONE HALF DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2011 THROUGH THE END OF MAY - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 26.68 INCHES (153 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 11.37 INCHES (128 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 9.25 INCHES (84 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 31.08 INCHES (58 PERCENT OF NORMAL) NCEP MODELS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HILO AND KAHULUI FOR JULY 2011. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR HAWAII FOR JULY 2011. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO B40 76.2 0.4 B40 7.1 9.5 11.4 KAHULUI B40 79.2 0.4 B40 0.2 0.4 0.5 HONOLULU EC 81.4 0.5 B40 0.2 0.4 0.5 LIHUE EC 79.2 0.4 B40 1.5 1.7 1.9 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JAS 2011 - JAS 2012 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR-AVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC AND ABOVE-AVERAGE IN THE FAR EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. SINCE MID-APRIL 2011 - POSITIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN. ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ANOMALIES STILL REFLECT ASPECTS OF LA NINA - BUT CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED OVER EASTERN INDONESIA AND SUPPRESSED OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WEAKENED BUT PERSISTED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS - ALONG WITH FORECASTS FROM A MAJORITY OF THE ENSO MODELS - INDICATE ENSO-NEUTRAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER 2011. NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HILO AND KAHULUI FROM JAS TO SON 2011. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IS FORECAST FROM JAS TO SON 2011 BASED ON THE NCEP FORECAST TOOLS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2011 B40 76.1 0.4 B40 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2011 B40 76.4 0.4 B40 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2011 B40 76.2 0.4 B40 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2011 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2011 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2012 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2012 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2012 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2012 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2012 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2012 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2012 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2012 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2011 B40 79.0 0.4 B40 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2011 B40 79.4 0.4 B40 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2011 B40 79.1 0.4 B40 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2011 B0 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2011 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2012 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2012 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2012 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.3 4.1 6.4 MAM 2012 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2012 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.3 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2012 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2012 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2012 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2011 EC 81.3 0.4 B40 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2011 EC 81.7 0.4 B40 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2011 EC 81.4 0.4 B40 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2011 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2011 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2012 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2012 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2012 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2012 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2012 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2012 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2012 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2012 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2011 EC 79.0 0.3 B40 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2011 EC 79.4 0.3 B40 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2011 EC 79.1 0.3 B40 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2011 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2011 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2012 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2012 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2012 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2012 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2012 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2012 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2012 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2012 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8 FORECASTER: LUKE HE ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU JUL 21, 2011. $$