PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830AM EDT THU MAY 19 2011 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JUNE 2011 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO POSITIVE ONE DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2011 THROUGH THE END OF APRIL - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 17.60 INCHES (121 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 8.28 INCHES (102 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 7.93 INCHES (77 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 22.60 INCHES (50 PERCENT OF NORMAL) NCEP MODELS PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LIHUE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HILO FOR JUNE 2011. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR HAWAII FOR JUNE 2011. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO B40 75.4 0.4 B40 5.3 6.3 8.7 KAHULUI EC 78.0 0.5 B40 0.1 0.1 0.2 HONOLULU EC 80.3 0.4 B40 0.1 0.2 0.3 LIHUE A40 78.1 0.4 B40 1.1 1.3 1.6 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JJA 2011 - JJA 2012 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. LA NINA CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AFTER REACHING PEAK INTENSITY IN EARLY JANUARY. THE MAGNITUDE OF NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES CONTINUED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SST ANOMALIES SHOWED NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG MOST OF THE EQUATOR - WITH A SMALL AREA OF SST ANOMALIES MORE THAN 2 DEGREE C WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE FAR EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE SUBSURFACE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ANOMALIES INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO AN EXPANDED AREA OF ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT THERMOCLINE DEPTH. THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX HAS FALLEN SHARPLY OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. UNTIL VERY RECENTLY THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUED TO REFLECT LA NINA CONDITIONS - CHARACTERIZED BY SUPPRESSED CONVECTION AND ENHANCED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN DISRUPTED BY A MODERATE TO STRONG MJO THAT HAS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BROUGHT WESTERLY ANOMALIES TO THE REGION. CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS AND ENSO MODELS - INDICATE LA NINA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE COMING MONTHS WITH A RETURN TO ENSO-NEUTRAL DURING MAY-JUNE-JULY 2011. NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LIHUE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HILO FROM JJA TO ASO 2011. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IS FORECAST FROM JJA TO JAS 2011 BASED ON THE NCEP FORECAST TOOLS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2011 B40 75.2 0.4 B40 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2011 B40 76.1 0.4 B40 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2011 B40 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2011 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2011 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2011 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2012 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2012 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2012 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2012 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2012 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2012 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2012 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2011 EC 77.7 0.4 B40 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2011 EC 79.0 0.4 B40 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2011 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2011 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2011 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2011 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2012 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2012 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2012 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.3 4.1 6.4 MAM 2012 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2012 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.3 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2012 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2012 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2011 EC 79.9 0.4 B40 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2011 EC 81.3 0.4 B40 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2011 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2011 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2011 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2011 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2012 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2012 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2012 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2012 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2012 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2012 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2012 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2011 A40 77.7 0.4 B40 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2011 A40 79.0 0.3 B40 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2011 A40 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2011 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2011 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2011 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2012 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2012 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2012 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2012 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2012 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2012 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2012 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU JUN 16, 2011. $$