PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830AM EDT THU APR 21 2011 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MAY 2011 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO POSITIVE ONE HALF DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2010 THROUGH THE END OF MARCH - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 15.49 INCHES (135 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 5.70 INCHES (81 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 7.87 INCHES (93 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 18.15 INCHES (55 PERCENT OF NORMAL) NCEP MODELS PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FOR MAY 2011. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR HAWAII FOR MAY 2011. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A40 72.6 0.5 A40 7.6 10.3 11.0 KAHULUI A40 74.3 0.6 A40 0.5 1.0 1.3 HONOLULU A40 76.0 0.5 A40 0.5 0.7 1.0 LIHUE A40 74.1 0.5 A40 1.6 2.7 3.3 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MJJ 2011 - MJJ 2012 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. LA NINA CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AFTER REACHING PEAK INTENSITY IN EARLY JANUARY. THE MAGNITUDE OF NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES CONTINUED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN. SUBSURFACE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ANOMALIES BECAME WEAKLY POSITIVE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER LA NINA CONTINUED TO BE MOST EVIDENT IN THE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. CONVECTION REMAINED ENHANCED OVER MUCH OF INDONESIA AND SUPPRESSED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS HAVE PERSISTED IN THIS REGION. DUE TO BOTH MODEL AND OBSERVED TRENDS IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS - ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUMMER 2011. NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FOR MJJ 2011. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IS FORECAST FOR MJJ 2011 BASED ON THE NCEP FORECAST TOOLS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MJJ 2011 A40 75.0 0.4 A40 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2011 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2011 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2011 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2011 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2011 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2011 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2012 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2012 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2012 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2012 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2012 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2012 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MJJ 2011 A40 77.3 0.6 A40 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2011 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2011 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2011 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2011 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2011 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2011 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2012 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2012 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2012 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2012 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2012 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2012 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MJJ 2011 A40 79.3 0.4 A40 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2011 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2011 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2011 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2011 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2011 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2011 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2012 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2012 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2012 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2012 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2012 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2012 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MJJ 2011 A40 77.5 0.4 A40 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2011 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2011 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2011 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2011 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2011 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2011 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2012 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2012 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2012 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2012 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2012 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2012 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU MAY 19, 2011. $$