PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830AM EST THU JAN 20 2011 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FEBRUARY 2011 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO DEGREE C TO POSITIVE ONE DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2010 THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 24.62 INCHES (62 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 17.43 INCHES (95 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 9.53INCHES (50 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 63.29 INCHES (50 PERCENT OF NORMAL) NCEP MODELS PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FOR FEBRUARY 2011. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR LIHUE FOR FEBRUARY 2011. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A40 71.6 0.5 EC 3.5 7.5 11.0 KAHULUI A40 71.9 0.6 EC 1.3 2.2 2.9 HONOLULU A40 72.9 0.6 EC 0.7 1.4 3.5 LIHUE A40 71.7 0.6 A40 1.4 3.1 4.8 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FMA 2011 - FMA 2012 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. LA NINA CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN REMAINS MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE. THE SUBSURFACE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT CONTINUED TO REFLECT A LARGE RESERVOIR OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT DEPTH IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. TRADE WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN AVERAGE - WHILE CLOUD PATTERNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TYPICAL LA NINA SIGNATURE WITH SUPPRESSED CLOUDINESS IN TROPICAL AREAS NEAR THE DATELINE. THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX REMAINS STRONGLY POSITIVE. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING 2011. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF COLD EPISODES - WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILIATED ISLANDS DURING NEXT TWO SEASONS. NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM FMA TO MJJ 2011. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IS FORECAST FROM FMA TO AMJ 2011 BASED ON THE LA NINA COMPOSITE AND NCEP FORECAST TOOLS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2011 A40 72.1 0.4 A40 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2011 A40 72.8 0.5 A40 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2011 A40 73.9 0.4 A40 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2011 A40 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2011 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2011 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2011 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2011 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2011 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2011 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2012 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2012 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2012 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2011 A40 73.2 0.5 A40 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2011 A40 74.4 0.6 A40 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2011 A40 75.8 0.6 A40 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2011 A40 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2011 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2011 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2011 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2011 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2011 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2011 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2012 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2012 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2012 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2011 A40 74.5 0.4 A40 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2011 A40 76.0 0.4 A40 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2011 A40 77.7 0.4 A40 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2011 A40 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2011 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2011 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2011 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2011 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2011 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2011 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2012 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2012 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2012 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2011 A40 73.1 0.4 A40 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2011 A40 74.4 0.4 A40 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2011 A40 75.9 0.4 A40 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2011 A40 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2011 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2011 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2011 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2011 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2011 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2011 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2012 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2012 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2012 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU FEB 17, 2011. $$